[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Sep 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gert is centered near 29.9N 52.9W at 03/0900 UTC
or 630 nm E of Bermuda, moving NNE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50
kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 26N to 30N between 52W and 56W. The 12 ft
seas extend 105 nm in the SE quadrant, 75 nm in the SW quadrant,
60 nm in the NE quadrant, and 30 nm in the NW quadrant with peak
seas near 17 ft. Gert is expected to have a faster north-
northeastward to northward motion is expected during the next day
or so. No significant changed in strength is expected until Gert
degenerates into a trough of low pressure by early Monday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Gert NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Katia is centered near 26.0N 31.9W at 03/0900 UTC
or 740 nm NW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered showers are
noted within 150 nm in the NE quadrant. The 12 ft seas extend 105
nm in the NE quadrant, 90 nm in the NW quadrant and SE quadrant,
and 60 nm SW quadrant with peak seas around 17 ft. Katia will
continue moving NW with a gradual reduction in forward speed
should continue through Monday. Katia is forecast to move little
or drift toward the north on Tuesday. Gradual weakening should
continue, and the system is expected to degenerate into a remnant
low by Monday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-
France at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 and the
latest Katia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave (AL95) is along 25W from 17N southward, moving W
at 10-15 kt. A 1010 mb low is along the wave near 11N. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N
between 23W and 29W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system by the middle part of
this week, and a tropical depression is likely to form while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt over the
eastern and central portions of the tropical Atlantic. This system
has a low chance of formation through 48 hours and high chance in
7 days.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W from 18N southward, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted near the northern portion of the axis from 16N to 18N
between 65W and 69W.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W from 19N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. A few thunderstorms are active
off Colombia S of 13N between 76W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to
09N32W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
along the coast of Africa from 05N to 14N and E of 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends off the coast of Mississippi
to the SE Gulf of Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms are noted west of
the front near the Florida Keys. A trough extends in the central
Gulf of Mexico from 28N90W to 24N93W with isolated thunderstorms
within 50 nm of the trough. Another trough is noted in the eastern
Bay of Campeche with scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection S of 22N92W between 91W and 95W. Moderate winds are
noted in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and off the NW Yucatan
Peninsula. Otherwise, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are to 4
ft across the basin.

For the forecast, a weak surface trough with moderate winds over
the west-central Gulf will drift westward today as high pressure
continues to build over the Gulf waters. Winds and seas could be
higher near thunderstorms associated with the trough. Moderate to
locally fresh winds will pulse at night off the NW Yucatan
Peninsula through Tue night. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh
winds will also pulse at night in the eastern Gulf through Mon
night. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds are forecast from
Wed evening through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information
about convection associated with tropical waves in the Caribbean
Sea.

A trough extends off the coast of Cuba and the Cayman Islands from
22N85W to 19N79W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted along this trough from 18N to 22N between 79W
and 85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also
noted off the Nicaragua coast and Gulf of Honduras from 12N to 18N
between 80W and 89W. The pressure gradient is relaxing across the
basin, bringing gentle to moderate trade winds with slight seas.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds with slight to
moderate seas will prevail today across the basin. Fresh winds
will return in the central and eastern Caribbean tonight and
continue through Thu night. Slight to moderate seas will also
persist through most of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Gert and Tropical Storm Katia and the TROPICAL
WAVES section for details about AL95.

A cold front associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia extends
from 31N59W to the Florida Keys near 25N81W. Strong W to NW winds
are noted W of the front between 57W and 66W. Moderate to locally
fresh NE winds are noted across the rest of the SW N Atlantic,
including off the Florida and northern Bahamas coast. Rough to
very rough swell still continues across the area, with the 12 ft
seas N of 28N between 58W and 71W. Moderate to rough swell extends
from the coast of Florida southward to Puerto Rico.

In the central Atlantic, high pressure extends across the area. A
trough is noted from 28N40W to 18N53W with scattered showers
within 50 nm of the trough. Light to gentle winds are noted in
this region of the Atlantic with moderate seas. In the eastern
Atlantic, gentle to moderate winds are noted with slight seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low associated with Post-
Tropical Cyclone Idalia continues to move farther north from the
area. Strong winds around the low will diminish across the
northern offshore waters by tonight. Rough to very rough seas will
continue through the next few days and subside by Tue. Tranquil
conditions will settle across the area and continue through Thu.

$$
AReinhart
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