[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Sep 03 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gert is centered near 29.1N 53.4W at 03/0300 UTC
or 620 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving NNE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50
kt with gusts to 60 kt. Gert remains a resilient compact
tropical storm in strong wind shear conditions and has even
managed to strengthen a little more. Shear is keeping scattered
moderate to strong convection within 60 nm to the southeast of
the center. The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at
5 kt.  This motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is
expected during the next day or so as the system getst swept up
by the much larger circulation of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia.
Seas are 12 ft or greater within 90 nm in the southeast quadrant
of the storm. No significant change in strength is expected
before Gert is forecast to generate into a trough of low
pressure early Monday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Gert NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Katia is centered near 26.5N 31.0W at 03/0300 UTC
or 740 nm NNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NNW at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Katia has noticeably
weakened since the previous advisory.  Remnants of convection
appear to be separating from the low-level circulation and no
new bursts have formed in the past few hours.  A turn to the
northwest is expected shortly, and this general motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected through Monday.
Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly
unfavorable, with strong-to-moderate vertical wind shear and dry
mid-level humidities. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected,
and the system could degenerate into a remnant low on Monday.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-
France at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 and the
latest Katia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave (AL95) is near 23W from 18N southward, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 13N
between 23W and 27W, south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system by the middle part of this week, and
a tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward
to west-northwestward over the eastern and central portions of
the tropical Atlantic. This tropical wave has a low chance of
development through 48 hrs.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W, from 18N southward,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
depicted from 14N to 17N between 65W and 69W.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. A few thunderstorms are active
off Colombia near 11N76W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N14W to 05N22W to 07N31W. No
significant convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle E to SE winds across the northeast Gulf indicate
a stalled frontal boundary over that region is rapidly
dissipating, leaving a stalled frontal boundary along the
northern Gulf coast from Apalachicola, Florida to Alabama. A few
showers and thunderstorms are evident near a surface trough
paralleling the Florida coast over the far southeast Gulf.
Farther west, a broad surface trough is evident over the
southwest Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds may be funneling
along the north coast of the Yucatan peninsula behind the
trough, but light to gentle winds persist elsewhere with 1 to 3
ft seas. Scattered moderate convection is moving off the west
coast of the Yucatan peninsula following the trough.

For the forecast, a weak surface trough with moderate winds over
the central Gulf will drift westward through Sun as high
pressure continues to build over the Gulf waters. Winds and seas
could be higher near thunderstorms associated with the trough.
Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse at night off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula through Tue night. A surface trough will move
off the Florida Peninsula Mon evening and move towards the north-
central basin through Tue evening along with moderate to locally
fresh E winds. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds are
forecast from Wed evening through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information
about convection in the Caribbean Sea. In addition to convection
related to tropical waves there is a pre-frontal trough moving
southward and is located south of central Cuba. Therefore,
scattered moderate convection is depicted in the western
Caribbean Sea. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted in the
south-central Caribbean, off northwest Venezuela and northeast
Colombia, with seas of 5 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, outside of
convection, trades are gentle to moderate with seas of 3 to 5
ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds with slight to
moderate seas will prevail through Sun across the basin. Fresh
winds will return in the central and eastern Caribbean by Mon
and continue through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Gert and Tropical Storm Katia and the TROPICAL
WAVES section for details about AL95.

A cold front associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia extends
from 31N60W to the central Bahamas. No significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is noted along or near this front. Over
the tropical Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 14N37W to
07N49W. Outside of the winds and seas discussed in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section associated with Tropical Storms Gert and Katia,
mostly gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas are
present across the Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low associated with Post-
Tropical Cyclone Idalia continues to move farther north from the
area. Strong winds around the low will diminish across the
northern offshore waters by Sun night and into Mon morning.
Rough to very rough seas will continue through the next few days
and subside by Tue. Tranquil conditions can be expected through
Thu.

$$
KRV
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