[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031806
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Sep 03 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

The center of Tropical Storm Gert, at 03/1500 UTC, is near
31.2N 51.9W. GERT is moving NNE, or 030 degrees,
13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts
to 60 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are: within
30 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 50 nm
of the center in the SE quadrant; within 40 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the sea heights
that are 12 feet or greater is: within 60 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant; within 90 nm of the center
in the SE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant; and within 60 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 15 feet.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 90 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is elsewhere from 24N northward between
50W and the 31N56W 26N61W cold front.
88W.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the
latest Gert NHC Forecast/Advisory and the Public Advisory,
at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Katia, at 03/1500 UTC, is
near 26.0N 31.9W. KATIA is moving toward the NW, or
310 degrees, 08 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Tropical storm-force
winds are: within 70 nm of the center in the NE quadrant;
within 50 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm
of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 40 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. The radius of the sea
heights that are 12 feet or greater is: within 105 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 90 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center
in the SW quadrant; and within 90 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 17 feet.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 250 nm of the center in the N quadrant.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is
issued by Meteo-France, at the website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2,
and the latest Katia NHC Forecast/Advisory and the
Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...INVEST AL951...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W. A 1009 mb
low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 10.5N.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 08N to 14N between 24W and 32W. The precipitation
pattern has become better organized since yesterday. The
environmental conditions appear to be conducive for more
development this week. It is likely for a tropical
depression to form around midweek. The movement of this
feature will be westward to west-northwestward 15 mph to
20 mph in the central and western sections of the
tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of formation into a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium.

Please refer to the website: www.hurricanes.gov, for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from
19N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 15N to 20N between Puerto Rico and 73W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 64W
westward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from
19N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 18N to 20N between SE Cuba and 82W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from
20N southward from 64W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains
border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, through the 1010 mb
27W tropical wave low pressure center, to 11N36W. The ITCZ
continues from 11N36W, to 11N45W 09N54W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 06N to 13N between 46W and 55W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward
from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the northern coast of Cuba to
23N80W, into the Gulf of Mexico near 28N86W. A stationary
front continues from 28N86W, through the coastal areas of
Louisiana, northwestward into Texas. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 22N
northward between 85W and 88W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 88W westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1016 mb high pressure
center that is near 25N88W, to a Mexico coastal plains
1017 mb high pressure center that is near 21N98W.

Moderate winds are in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and
off the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere. The sea heights are reaching 4 feet in the area.

A weak surface trough with moderate winds over the
west-central Gulf will drift westward today as high
pressure continues to build over the Gulf waters.
Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms
associated with the trough. Moderate to locally fresh
winds will pulse at night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula
through Tue night. Meanwhile, moderate to locally
fresh winds will also pulse at night in the eastern
Gulf through Mon night. Otherwise, light to gentle
variable winds are forecast from Wed evening through
Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 70W. A second tropical wave is
along 80W/81W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 15N to 20N between Puerto Rico and
73W; and from 18N to 20N between SE Cuba and 82W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward
from 64W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 75W in Colombia
beyond northern Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough between 76W and 80W.

The pressure gradient is relaxing across the
basin, bringing gentle to moderate trade winds with
slight seas.

The 24-hour rainfall totals, for the period that ended
at 03/1200 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN, are: 0.35 in
Bermuda; and 0.11 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands.

Gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will
prevail today across the basin. Fresh winds will return in
the central and eastern Caribbean tonight and continue
through Thu night. Slight to moderate seas will also
persist through most of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
T.S. GERT, T.S. KATIA, and the 27W tropical wave/1009 mb low
pressure center.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N44W,
about 620 nm to the W of KATIA, and about 540 nm to the ESE
of GERT. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 22N northward between 43W and 50W.

A cold front passes through 31N56W 26N61W 23N70W, across
the SE Bahamas and along the northern coast of Cuba to 23N80W,
into the Gulf of Mexico near 28N86W. A stationary front
continues from 28N86W, through the coastal areas of Louisiana,
northwestward into Texas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 120 nm on either side of the cold
front. The sea heights are 8 feet or higher from 22N northward
from 40W westward. The sea heights are ranging from 3 feet to
6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly fresh to
some strong NE winds are from 23N northward from 70W westward.
Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the area.

The Idalia remnant low continues to move farther north from the
area. Strong winds around the low will diminish across the
NE offshore waters by late tonight into early Monday.
Rough to very rough seas will continue through the next few
days and subside by Tue morning. Tranquil conditions will
settle across the area and continue through Thu.

$$
mt
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