[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041056
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Oct 04 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 20.5N 65.5W at 04/0900
UTC or 130 nm NNW of St. Thomas, moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Latest satellite imagery
shows that Philippe remains sheared system as overall it is poorly
organized. A very large overcast consisting of very deep
convection, of numerous strong type intensity, is within 240 nm of
the center in the SE quadrant and 150 nm of the center in the SW
quadrant. A area of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen to the northeast of Philippe from 20N to 23N
between 61W-65W. Peak seas are around 18 ft. Philippe is forecast
to turn toward the north-northwest later today, followed by a
faster motion toward the north Thu and Fri. On the current
forecast track, the center of Philippe will continue to move away
from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. Philippe will then
approach Bermuda Thu night and Fri. Philippe is forecast to
produce 4-8 inches with maximum amounts to 12 inches today in the
United States and British Virgin Islands. This rainfall is likely
to result in scattered flash flooding.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from
03N to 15N. It is moving westward near 20 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 180 nm east of the wave from 10N to
14N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W from 03N
to 17N, moving westward at about 15 kt. An area of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection lags the wave from 07N to
11N between 45W-53W. An overnight ASCAT data pass highlighted
strong easterly winds with this convective activity.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N23W to
07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 07N40W to 10N47W and
to 10N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 180 nm north of trough between 22W-27, and within 60 nm
north of trough between 17W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm south of trough between 18W-20W and within 30-60 nm
of ITCZ between 38W-44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail-end of an Atlantic dissipating cold front reaches to
west-central Cuba. High pressure from the eastern United States
ridges southwestward toward the northern Gulf. Anticyclonic flow
around the high pressure is presently driving the wind direction
across the area. The gradient between the high pressure and
relatively lower pressure to its south is supporting mostly fresh
easterly winds across the Gulf. Moderate seas are present from the
Yucatan Channel north to 28N and between 83W-94W. Slight seas are
in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds
are in the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds over just about the
entire basin. As the gradient slackens through Thu, this will
allow for these winds to diminish to gentle to moderate speeds.
Light to gentle winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri night. A
cold front is forecast to reach the northern Fri into Sat
followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe.

A trough extends from the east-central Yucatan Peninsula east-
southeastward to near 18N80W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are near the trough. Similar activity is over the north-central
and far south-central sections of the sea, while scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are over the far eastern section of
the sea and over some areas of the southwestern Caribbean.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms along the southeast periphery
of Philippe are over the northeast part of the sea. Aside from
strong southeast to south winds over the extreme northeast
Caribbean inflowing into Philippe as noted by an overnight ASCAT
data, the gradient that is currently in place is supporting gentle
to moderate winds trade winds and slight seas elsewhere over the
basin, except for moderate to fresh southeast winds south of 15N
and between 60W-65W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 20.5N 65.5W
at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Philippe will maintain intensity as it moves
to near 21.4N 65.8W this afternoon, to near 23.3N 66.0W late
tonight, then strengthen slightly as it moves to near 26.0N 66.0W
Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt.
Philippe will continue to pull farther north and well away from
the area through Fri. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of
the Leeward Islands generated by Philippe will subside this
morning. Light to gentle trade winds will be over the basin
through the next few days, except for moderate to fresh southerly
winds in the eastern Caribbean today. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms behind a tropical wave that is near 55W may move
into the central and southern portions of the Tropical N Atlantic
zones tonight into Thu. This activity is accompanied by strong
easterly winds.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe.

A dissipating cold front is analyzed from near 31N54W to 25N68W
and to west-central Cuba. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are within 120 nm northwest of the boundary between
55W-63W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere near
the front. An area of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection racing eastward ahead of the dissipating cold front
is seen from 29N to 31N between 41W-48W.

A surface trough and a low pressure center are north of 29N
between 28W-32W. The earlier observed convection has dissipated.

Fresh to strong northeast winds exist north of 28N and west of
75W as well as within 390 nm west of the central Atlantic tropical
wave that is along 55W. An overnight ASCAT data pass captured
an area of mostly strong easterly winds trailing the wave that
is along 55W. These winds were within an area of active scattered
to numerous thunderstorms roughly from 07N to 14N between
45W-53AW

Fresh southeast winds are seen south of 02N and west of 30W
per buoy and overnight ASCAT data passes. Fresh northeast
winds are from 08N to 25N between 33W-44W. Fresh east to southeast
winds are from 06N between 44W-60W. Moderate or lighter winds are
in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean, away from Tropical Storm
Philippe. Moderate seas cover the area away from Tropical Storm
Philippe.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 20.5N 65.5W
at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Philippe will maintain intensity as it moves
to near 21.4N 65.8W this afternoon, to near 23.3N 66.0W late
tonight, then strengthen slightly as it moves to near 26.0N 66.0W
Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to
near 29.0N 65.5W late Thu night, and to north of the area near
32.0N 65.0W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts
60 kt. Philippe is forecast to be well north of the area by late
Sat as it transitions to an extratropical system. Otherwise, a
dissipating cold front extends from near 31N54W to 25N68W and to
west-central Cuba. The northern portion of the cold front will
shift east of the area today as a trough, while the remainder of
the front is expected to dissipate late this morning or early
afternoon. The gradient over the western part of the area will
support fresh northeast winds north of the Bahamas through
tonight, then diminish afterward.

$$
Aguirre
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