[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040608
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Oct 04 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Philippe, at 04/0300 UTC, is
near 20.1N 65.5W. Philippe is moving toward the NW,
or 310 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. The radius of
tropical-storm force winds is: within 100 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant; within 140 nm of the center
in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or
greater are: within 210 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 180 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant; within 30 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant; and within 75 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 17 feet.
Rough seas are elsewhere within 500 nm of the center
in the NE quadrant. Precipitation: numerous strong
is within 200 nm of the center in the SE quadrant.
Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 300 nm of the center in the NE quadrant.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the
latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W,
from 14N southward, moving westward 20 knots.
Precipitation: most of the surrounding precipitation
also is related to the precipitation that is close
to the monsoon trough and the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W, from
17N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
435 nm to the east of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 13N to 26N between 44W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Senegal near 14N17W, to 08N29W. The ITCZ continues from
08N29W to 06N40W, to 06N47W. Precipitation:widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N to 13N
from 25W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere within 180 nm on either side of the monsoon
trough and the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating cold front passes through the Bahamas near
23N75W to NW Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 24N to 28N between 92W and 95W.
Strong NE winds are from 23N northward from 90W eastward.
Moderate seas are from the Yucatan Channel to 28N between
83W and 94W. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Gulf
of Mexico. Fresh to strong anticyclonic wind flow covers
the area that is to the north of the line that runs from
the middle Texas Gulf coast to the northern parts of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate or slower winds are in the
remainder of the area.

High pressure will dominate the Gulf waters supporting
fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds, mainly
over the eastern Gulf tonight, then begin to diminish.
Light to gentle winds are forecast elsewhere through
Fri night. A cold front is forecast to reach the northern
Gulf Fri night into Sat followed by fresh to strong winds
and moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the Special Features section,
for details about Tropical Storm Philippe.
A surface trough extends from the NE Yucatan Peninsula
for about 400 nm to the ESE in the Caribbean Sea. Broad
surface low pressure, and isolated moderate to locally
strong convective precipitation covers the northern half
of the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate winds have been within 240 nm of Tropical Storm
Philippe in the NW semicircle. Gentle to moderate winds,
and slight seas, are everywhere else in the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/12N, from 73W westward,
into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 14N southward from
67W westward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and
isolated moderate to locally strong precipitation, are
in the rest of the area that is from 70W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 04/0000 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN,
are: 2.38 in Guadeloupe, and 0.06 in Curacao.

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 20.1N 65.5W at 11 PM EDT,
and is moving northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Philippe will maintain intensity as
it moves to near 21.2N 65.9W Wed morning, to near
22.8N 66.4W Wed evening and to near 24.9N 66.7W Thu
morning. Philippe will continue to pull farther north
and well away from the area through Fri. Rough seas across
the forecast zones east of the Leeward Islands generated
by Philippe will start to subside on Wed. Light to gentle
trade winds will be over the basin through the next few
days, except for moderate to fresh southerly winds in
the eastern Caribbean through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the Special Features section,
for details about Tropical Storm Philippe. Fresh to
moderate SE winds are from 15N southward between 60W and
65W. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, cover
the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N54W, to 28N60W,
to 24N70W, to NW Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is to the northwest of the line
30N36W 25N60W 20N70W.

A surface trough and a low pressure center are from 29N
northward between 28W and 32W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 30W
westward.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 28N northward from 75W
westward; and within 390 nm to the west of the 53W tropical
wave from 07N to 16N. Fresh SE winds are from 02N southward
from 30W westward. Fresh NE winds are from 08N to 25N
between 33W and 44W. Fresh E-to-SE winds are from 06N
between 44W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean, away from Tropical Storm
Philippe. Moderate seas span the area, away from Tropical
Storm Philippe.

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 20.1N 65.5W at 11 PM EDT,
and is moving northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Philippe will maintain intensity
as it moves to near 21.2N 65.9W Wed morning, to near
22.8N 66.4W Wed evening, to near 24.9N 66.7W Thu morning,
to near 27.8N 66.4W Thu evening, then strengthen slightly
as it moves to near 30.7N 66.0W Fri morning with maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Philippe is forecast
to be well north of the area by late Sat as it transitions
to an extratropical system. Otherwise, a weakening cold
front extends from near 31N54W to 24N70W and to western
Cuba near 23N80W. The northern portion of the cold front
will shift east of the area Wed as a trough, while the
remainder of the front is expected to become stationary
and gradually dissipate through Wed night. The gradient
over the western part of the area will support fresh to
strong northeast winds north of the Bahamas through early
Wed morning before diminishing.

$$
MT/JA
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