[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041521
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Oct 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 21.2N 65.7W at 04/1500
UTC or 170 nm NNW of St. Thomas, moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The center is partially
exposed about 60 nm to the north of numerous strong to scattered
moderate showers and thunderstorms. Associated heavy rainfall is
expected to produce flash flooding across portions of the United
States and British Virgin Islands through today. Scattered showers
and thunderstorm are also evident within 75 to 90 nm to the
northeast of the center. Seas in excess of 12 ft are noted with
180 nm to the north of the center and within 60 nm to the south of
center, with peak seas to 18 ft. Philippe is expected to pick up
speed moving northward tonight, maintaining tropical storm
strength. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Friday morning, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the
island.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W from 03N
to 15N. It is moving westward at 10 to 20 kt. No significant
convection is noted near the wave axis at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of
17N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is active from 12N to 14N between 51W and 53W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania near
19N16W to 10N30W. The ITCZ extends from 10N32W to 08N40W to
09N54W, and from 08N56W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 11N to 13N between 25W and 28W, and from 06N to 08N
between 35W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered over the Carolinas to
the north-central Gulf. A weak trough breaks up the ridge slightly
over the coast of Texas. The pattern is supporting moderate to
fresh E to SE winds across all but the far southwest Gulf, where
light to gentle breezes are noted. Winds converging into the
trough over Texas along with diffluent flow aloft are supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms in a line extending south of
Freeport, Texas to around 25N95W. Wave heights are 4 to 6 ft
across the basin, except 1 to 3 ft over the far southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds over just about the
entire basin. As the gradient slackens through Thu, this will
allow for these winds to diminish to gentle to moderate speeds.
Light to gentle winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri night. A
cold front is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Fri into Sat
followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate seas.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe.

A broad mid to upper level trough reaches from off the Carolina
coast southward through central Cuba to off the coast of
Nicaragua. Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers
and thunderstorms off the coast of southeast Cuba, south of
Jamaica, and across Haiti and the Windward Passage. Fresh SE winds
and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the eastern Caribbean east of
65W. Convergence related to these winds along with divergent flow
aloft is supporting a cluster of moderate to strong thunderstorms
about 60 nm to the northeast of Bonaire in the south- central
Caribbean. Moderate NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted north of
20N, with mostly gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas elsewhere west
of 65W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active north the
monsoon trough over Providencia Island in the southwest Caribbean,
and off eastern Panama to the south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, rough seas across the area east of the Leeward
Islands generated by Philippe will continue to subside today.
Light to gentle trade winds will be over the basin through the
next few days, except for moderate to fresh southerly winds in the
eastern Caribbean today.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe.

A trough reaches from 31N52W to near 26N61W is starting to lose
definition as Philippe moves northward from north of the Leeward
and Virgin Islands. Moderate winds are noted outside of the
immediate area of Philippe west of 55W, except for moderate to
fresh NE winds off northeast Florida, with 6 to 8 ft seas.

Farther east, a ridge extends from near the Azores Islands to
25N50W. Fresh SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted between the
ridge and the aforementioned surface trough, north of 28N between
35W and 55W. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are evident
south of ridge with 5 to 7 ft seas. Gentle breezes are noted along
the ridge axis.

Over the eastern Atlantic, a trough is noted east of the ridge
and just west of the Canary Islands from 25N to 30N between 20W
and 25W. Fresh to strong NE to E wind are noted across the Canary
Islands east of the trough, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted elsewhere east of 35W, with 5 to 7 ft
seas in mixed swell.

For the forecast, Philippe will continue northward over the next
two to three days, and is forecast to be well north of the area
by late Sat as it transitions to an extratropical system. The
pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will support fresh
northeast winds north of the Bahamas through tonight, then
diminish afterward.

$$
Christensen
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