[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Oct 02 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Philippe, at 02/0300 UTC, is
near 16.6N 59.1W. Philippe is moving toward the WNW, or
300 degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 998 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. The radius of
tropical-storm force winds is: within 100 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant; within 150 nm of the center
in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or
greater are: within 180 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant; within 150 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant; within 75 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant; and within 180 nm of the center in the
NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are 21 feet.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within 300 nm of
the center in the SE semicircle.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the
latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,
at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina, at 02/0300 UTC,
is near 27.1N 55.4W. Rina is moving toward the N, or
010 degrees, 11 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1010 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. The sea heights that
are 12 feet or greater are: within 30 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant; within 30 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant;
and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Expect
that the wind speeds will be from 20 knots to 25 knots,
and that the sea heights will range from 8 feet to 12 feet,
within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Elsewhere
from 25N to 31N between 50W and 57W the wind speeds will
be 20 knots or less, and the sea heights will range from
8 feet to 9 feet in SE-to-S swell. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong is
within 270 nm of the center in the E semicircle.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the
latest Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory,
at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from
20N southward, moving westward 5 knots to 10 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 270 nm on either side of the tropical
wave, away from the ITCZ precipitation.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plans of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 08N16W 07N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N19W, to 04N30W, and 05N36W. The ITCZ
also is along 13N/14N between 40W and 51W. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 100 nm to the east
of the monsoon trough from 09N to 12N in coastal Africa.
Scattered moderate to strong is within 210 nm to the
south of the ITCZ between 40W and 51W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 10N southward from 35W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the NW Bahamas, through south
Florida near 26N81W, to 28N90W, to the middleTexas Gulf
coast. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 26N northward.

A surface trough curves from 25N87W to northern Guatemala.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 420 nm on either side of the surface trough.

Slight to moderate seas, and mostly fresh to some strong
NE winds, are from 26N northward. Slight seas, and
moderate or slower winds, are elsewhere.

A cold front over the central waters will drift southward
and dissipate early this week. Fresh to locally strong
winds will expand southward from the northern waters to
the central basin through midweek before winds start to
diminish. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
forecast elsewhere.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough curves from 25N87W in the Gulf of Mexico,
to northern Guatemala. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is within 420 nm on either side of the
surface trough.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate
to locally strong convective precipitation, cover the
Caribbean Sea from the Dominican Republic westward.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 17N to 23N between Puerto Rico and NW Cuba.

Slight seas are everywhere in the Caribbean Sea.
Fresh winds are on the western edge of Tropical Storm
Philippie, from 65W eastward. Moderate or slower winds
are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 75W in Colombia
westward, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward from 75W
westward. This precipitation also is happening in the area
of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 02/0000 UTC, according to the MIATPTPAN,
are: 1.09 in Bermuda, and 0.40 in Guadeloupe.

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 16.6N 59.1W at 11 PM EDT,
and is moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 998 mb. Philippe will maintain
intensity as it moves to near 17.0N 59.8W Mon morning,
to near 17.8N 60.7W Mon evening, to near 19.0N 61.3W
Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts
60 kt, to near 20.3N 61.7W Tue evening, to near
22.0N 61.8W Wed morning, then turn NNE to near
23.8N 61.7W Wed evening with maximum sustained winds
55 kt gusts 65 kt. Philippe is forecast to strengthen
to a hurricane near 27.5N 60.2W Thu evening with maximum
sustained 65 kt gusts 80 kt and reach near 30.1N 57.6W
Fri evening with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts
90 kt. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of
the Leeward Islands generated by Tropical Storm
Philippe will start to subside the middle of the week.
Light to gentle trade winds will be over the basin
through the next few days, except for moderate to fresh
trades developing in the SE Caribbean Tue night into Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details
about Tropical Storm Philippe and Post-Tropical Cyclone Rina.

A cold front passes through 31N63W, to the NW Bahamas,
through south Florida near 26N81W, to 28N90W, to the middle
Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is to the northwest of the line that runs from 31N58W
to 20N70W.

A stationary front is along 31N27W 27N35W, to 27N39W. A
dissipating stationary front continues from 27N39W, to
31N49W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from 27N northward between 40W and 51W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder
of the area that is from 24N northward between 20W and 52W.

Fresh NE winds are from 24N northward from 70W westward.
Strong to near gale-force NE winds are from 11N to 13N
within 75 nm to the east of the 38W/39W tropical wave.
Fresh to strong NE winds are from 13N to 26N between 20W
and 40W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are from 12N northward
between 40W and 53W, away from Rina. Moderate or slower
winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate
seas are in the Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical Storm Philippe is near 16.6N 59.1W at 11 PM EDT,
and is moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 998 mb. Philippe will maintain
intensity as it moves to near 17.0N 59.8W Mon morning,
to near 17.8N 60.7W Mon evening, to near 19.0N 61.3W
Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts
60 kt, to near 20.3N 61.7W Tue evening, to near
22.0N 61.8W Wed morning, then turn NNE to near
23.8N 61.7W Wed evening with maximum sustained winds
55 kt gusts 65 kt. Philippe is forecast to strengthen
to a hurricane near 27.5N 60.2W Thu evening with
maximum sustained 65 kt gusts 80 kt and reach near
30.1N 57.6W Fri evening with maximum sustained winds
75 kt gusts 90 kt. A cold front from 31N64W to Central
Florida will shift south and east, with fresh to locally
strong winds north of the front through the middle of
the week.

$$
mt
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