[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012304
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Oct 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 16.4N 59.0W at 01/2100
UTC or 140 nm E of Guadeloupe, moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 20 ft. Numerous
moderate scattered strong convection is from 11N to 17N between
51W and 59W. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is
forecast to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands on Monday and Monday night. Little change in strength is
forecast during the next 48 hours, and Philippe could begin to
intensify more significantly around the middle of the week. Swells
generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts
of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office for details.

Tropical Depression Rina is centered near 26.2N 55.5W at 01/2100
UTC or 640 nm NE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at
14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are
12 ft. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N to 29N between
50W and 56W. Rina is expected to become a remnant low tonight and
dissipate on Monday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe and Rina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 37W, from 05N to 20N, moving west at
5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 21N between
32W and 40W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 12N17W and
continues to 06N24W. The ITCZ continues from 06N24W to 05N33W. No
significant convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is draped across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered moderate convection ahead of the boundary is from 24N
to 28N and E of 88W. North of the front, fresh to strong NE winds
prevail with 4-6 ft seas. South of the front, light to gentle E
winds prevail with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate early this week.
As the front shifts southward, fresh to locally strong winds will
expand southward from the northern waters to the central basin
through midweek before winds start to diminish. Light to gentle
winds and slight seas are forecast elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades
across the Caribbean, with 2-4 ft seas. Wind speeds are moderate
within 90 nm of the south coast of Hispaniola. Seas may range
between 5 and 6 ft in the Atlantic passages due to the proximity
of Tropical Storm Philippe.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe will move to 17.0N
59.9W Mon morning, 17.7N 60.8W Mon afternoon, 18.7N 61.6W Tue
morning, 19.9N 62.0W Tue afternoon, 21.4N 62.2W Wed morning, and
23.1N 62.2W Wed afternoon. Philippe will strengthen to a hurricane
near 26.9N 61.1W Thu afternoon. Rough seas across the forecast
zones east of the Leeward Islands generated by Tropical Storm
Philippe will start to subside the middle of the week. Mainly
moderate trade winds will prevail across the central Caribbean,
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through today. Light to
gentle winds are forecast in the Caribbean Mon through Thu, except
moderate to fresh trades developing in the SE Caribbean Tue night
into Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Depression Rina.

A cold front extends from 31N65W to 28N80W. North of the front,
NE winds are fresh to strong. Scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm south of the front. A weakening frontal boundary is
in the central Atlantic from 31N29W to 28N39W to 31N49W. 1020 mb
high pressure is centered near 24N36W. Across the remainder of the
area, trades are gentle to moderate with seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, Tropical Storm Philippe will move to
17.0N 59.9W Mon morning, 17.7N 60.8W Mon afternoon, 18.7N 61.6W
Tue morning, 19.9N 62.0W Tue afternoon, 21.4N 62.2W Wed morning,
and 23.1N 62.2W Wed afternoon. Philippe will strengthen to a
hurricane near 26.9N 61.1W Thu afternoon. The West Atlantic cold
front will shift south and east, with fresh to locally strong
winds north of the front through the middle of the week.

$$
ERA
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