[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011631
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Oct 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1610 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 16.1N 58.7W at 01/1500
UTC or 160 nm E of Guadeloupe, moving W at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 21 ft. Numerous
moderate scattered strong convection is from 12N to 16N between
55W and 58W. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
expected to begin today and continue into tonight. A turn toward
the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected on
Monday, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe is forecast to pass near or just
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Monday
night. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly
around the middle of the week. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Rina is centered near 25.3N 54.8W at 01/1500 UTC
or 630 nm NE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 13
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are
13 ft. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N to 25N between
52W and 56W. A turn toward the north- northwest and north is
expected tonight and Monday. Weakening is forecast during the next
day or so. Rina is expected to become a remnant low by tonight
and dissipate by late Monday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Rina
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 36W, from 05N to 20N, moving west at 5-10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 17N between 35W
and 43W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 12N17W and
continues to 06N24W. The ITCZ continues from 06N24W to 05N34W.
No significant convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered moderate convection ahead of the boundary is from 26N
to 28N between 86W and 90W. North of the front, NE to E winds are
moderate to fresh with 4-6 ft seas. South of the front, SE to E
winds are light to gentle with 2-4 ft seas. Additional showers and
tstorms are noted near the Dry Tortugas and within the Florida
Straits.

For the forecast, the front will start to drift southward as a
cold front later today then dissipate Mon. As the front shifts
southward, the fresh winds, with locally strong winds, will expand
southward to the central basin through Wed before winds start to
diminish. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are forecast
elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The latest scatterometer data shows light to gentle trades across
the Caribbean, with 2-4 ft seas. Wind speeds are moderate within
90 nm of the south coast of Hispaniola. Seas may be locally
elevated in the Atlantic passages due to Tropical Storm Philippe,
currently located 160 nm E of Guadeloupe.

For the forecast, Philippe will move to 16.5N 59.5W this evening, 17.1N
60.5W Mon morning, 17.9N 61.3W Mon evening, 19.0N 62.1W Tue
morning, 20.3N 62.3W Tue evening, and 22.0N 62.3W Wed morning.
Philippe will strengthen to a hurricane near 25.8N 61.8W early
Thu. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the Leeward
Islands generated by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to subside
the middle of the week. Mainly moderate trade winds will prevail
across the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere through today. Light to gentle winds are forecast in the
Caribbean Mon through Thu, except moderate to fresh trades
developing in the SE Caribbean Tue night into Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
Tropical Storm Philippe and Tropical Storm Rina.

A cold front extends from 31N67W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. North
of the front, NE winds are fresh to strong. Scatterometer data
indicates winds may be locally to near-gale force. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm south of the front. A
weakening frontal boundary is in the central Atlantic from 31N30W
to 28N38W to 30N47W. 1021 mb high pressure is centered near
24N36W. Across the remainder of the area, trades are gentle to
moderate with seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, Philippe will move to 16.5N 59.5W this
evening, 17.1N 60.5W Mon morning, 17.9N 61.3W Mon evening, 19.0N
62.1W Tue morning, 20.3N 62.3W Tue evening, and 22.0N 62.3W Wed
morning. Philippe will strengthen to a hurricane near 25.8N 61.8W
early Thu. Rough seas generated from Philippe will impact the
waters E of 65W through at least the end of the week. A stationary
front N of the Bahamas will start to shift south and east as a
cold front, with fresh to locally strong winds north of the front
through the middle of the week.

$$
Mahoney
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net