[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021058
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 02 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Philippe is centered near 16.9N 59.5W at 02/0600
UTC or 110 nm ENE of Guadeloupe, moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 16 ft. Philippe
remains under northwesterly shear. As a result, a large area of
very deep convection, of the numerous strong type, is displaced to
the southeast of the center of Philippe from 12N to 18N between
54W-61W. Philippe is forecast to maintain its present motion
through early Tue, with a then turn toward the north- northwest
forecast to occur by late Tue, followed by a northward motion on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is
expected to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands later today and tonight. Swells generated by Philippe will
affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest Philippe NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W from 03N
to 20N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm east of the wave from 06N to 10N, and within
60 nm of the wave from 10N to 13N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plans of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and reaches to 06N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N19W to 05N26W and to 05N36W. Another ITCZ segment
extends from 14N41W to 14N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
south of the trough and ITCZ within 30 nm of a line from 05N13W
to 05N16W to 05N21W, and within 60 nm of the second ITCZ segment.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from South Florida wets-northwest to 27N88W
and to near Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are along the front between 87W-90W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere near the front.

A surface trough extends from 23N93W to inland Mexico at 19N93W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the SW Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche.

Slight to moderate seas and mostly fresh to some strong northeast
winds are north of 26N. Slight seas and moderate or lighter winds
are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front over the central waters will
drift southward and dissipate early this week. Fresh to locally
strong winds will expand southward from the northern waters to the
central basin through midweek before winds start to diminish.
Light to gentle winds and slight seas are forecast elsewhere
through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally
strong convective precipitation, cover the Caribbean Sea from the
Dominican Republic westward. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted from 17N to 23N between Puerto Rico and
NW Cuba.

Slight seas are everywhere in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh winds are
on the western edge of Tropical Storm Philippe east of about 65W.
Moderate or lighter winds are over the remainder of the Caribbean.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from 75W in Colombia
westward into the Pacific Ocean. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are south of 13N and west of 75W.
Upper-level low pressure is helping to sustain this activity.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.1N 60.0W at
5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 998 mb. Philippe will maintain intensity as it moves
to near 17.7N 60.7W this afternoon, to near 18.6N 61.4W late
tonight, to near 19.8N 61.8W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained
winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, to near 21.2N 62.2W late Tue night, to
near 22.7N 62.3W Wed afternoon and to near 24.6N 62.2W late Wed
night with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Philippe is
forecast to strengthen to a hurricane well northeast of the area
late Thu night. Rough seas across the forecast zones east of the
Leeward Islands generated by Tropical Storm Philippe will start to
subside the middle of the week. Light to gentle trade winds will
be over the basin through the next few days, except for moderate
to fresh winds developing in the southeastern Caribbean Tue night
into Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Philippe.

A cold front extends from 31N63W to the central Bahamas and to
South Florida near 26N80W. It continues west-northwest well into
the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 60 nm north of the front between 71W-76W. Similar
activity is east of the front to near 56w and north of 30N.

A frontal trough extends from near 31N27W to 28N36W and
northwestward to 31N49W. Increasing scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are along and within 60 nm either side
of the trough between 41W-50W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are elsewhere near the trough.

The remnant low of Rina is near 28N55W with a pressure of 1010 mb.
Increasing scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from
26N to 30N between 51W-55W. Fresh to locally strong winds are
present with this activity.

Fresh to strong northeast winds are from 13N to 26N between
20W-40W. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are elsewhere north of
12N between 40W-53W. Moderate or lighter winds are over the
remainder of the basin. Moderate seas are over the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Philippe is near 17.1N 60.0W at
5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 998 mb. Philippe will maintain intensity as it moves to near
17.7N 60.7W this afternoon, to near 18.6N 61.4W late tonight, to
near 19.8N 61.8W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt
gusts 60 kt, to near 21.2N 62.2W late Tue night, to near 22.7N
62.3W Wed afternoon and to near 24.6N 62.2W late Wed night with
maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Philippe is forecast to
strengthen to a hurricane near 28.3N 60.8W late Thu night with
maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt and reach near 31.7N
58.9W late Fri night. The remnant low of Rina is near 28N55W.
Scattered thunderstorms are over and near the low. The low will
lift northeastward today in advance of an approaching cold front
that presently extends from 31N64W to 26N74W and to South Florida.
The front will shift south and east through Tue and stall. Fresh
to locally strong northeast to east winds north of the frontal
boundary are expected through the middle of the week.

$$
Aguirre
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