[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230514
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A cold front passes through 31N42W, to a 1004 mb 28N44W low
pressure center, to 23N45W 19N49W. The front is stationary from
19N49W to 18N54W and 18N63W. A surface trough is along 18N49W
14N51W 10N53W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 19N to 21N
between 40W and 43W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is elsewhere within 360 nm to the east of the frontal boundary
from 18N northward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within
60 nm on either side of the rest of the frontal boundary; and
between 35W and 50W. Expect W gale-force winds, and sea heights
that range from 12 feet to 14 feet, from 20N northward between 35W
and 51W. Expect 20 knots or less, and sea heights that range from
8 feet to 12 feet in N to NE swell, from 18N northward between 48W
and 72W, including in the Atlantic Ocean exposures and passages.
It is possible that this system may become a subtropical storm,
or a tropical storm, late this week or during the weekend, while
it loses its frontal characteristics, and moves northeastward.
The chances of development, subtropical or tropical, should end
by early next week, when the system moves into cooler waters.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details about the
gale-force wind warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains borders of
Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, curving to 09N18W and 06N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N18W, to 04N25W 04N35W 03N44W. A separate surface
trough is along 11N38W 09N40W 07N40W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the ITCZ northward
to 10N between 26W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 31N77W in the Atlantic Ocean, to just
to the northwest of Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, to the
northern coastal sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the
easternmost parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico, just to the west of Guatemala. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 100 nm to 150 nm to
the east of the cold front from 28N northward. Isolated moderate
is elsewhere within 120 nm to the east of the cold front. Broken
to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are to
the west of the cold front, in the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from the middle Texas Gulf coast, through
NE Mexico, curving southeastward, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

Strong NW winds are within 70 nm of Mexico from 21N southward.
Fresh northerly winds are elsewhere from 25N southward from 91W
westward. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are in the remainder
of the area that is from the cold front northward. Gentle winds
are from the cold front southward. Rough seas are in the SW corner
of the area, from 25N southward from 90W westward, and to the
areas that are from 25N southward between 87W and 90W. Slight seas
are in the Straits of Florida, and off the middle Texas Gulf
coast. Mostly moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of
Mexico.

A cold front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to the northern
Yucatan Peninsula. The front will reach Marco Island, Florida to
the Yucatan by Thu morning where the front will stall. Strong
winds and rough seas in the wake of the front over the SW Gulf
will subside tonight into Thu. The front will lift north by Fri,
bringing moderate to fresh winds in the northern Gulf through the
weekend. A new cold front will then push across the basin late in
the weekend into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 11N78W. The monsoon trough
passes through Costa Rica, to the 1009 mb low pressure center.
A separate surface trough is along 12N79W 17N83W. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 12N to 14N between 78W and
81W. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 18N southward from
77W westward.

A second surface trough is along the line that is from the
northern part of the Gulf of Venezuela toward the western coast of
Puerto Rico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are between 64W
and 78W. Fresh NE winds are on the northwestern side of the
second surface trough between the trough and 72W. Moderate or
slower easterly winds are to the east of the second surface
trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds are between the two surface
troughs. Moderate or slower NE winds are in the rest of the
Caribbean Sea.

A nearly-stationary subtropical ridge reaching the northern
portion of the basin will support the continuation of moderate to
fresh trade winds in the central Caribbean through Sun. Fresh
winds in the south-central Caribbean are forecast to reach strong
speeds Sun night into Mon night. Gentle to moderate trades in the
E basin will increase to moderate to locally fresh Thu night into
Mon night. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail in the NW
Caribbean the entire forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
Gale-Force Wind Warning, that is associated with the 28N44W
low pressure center.

A cold front passes through 31N77W in the Atlantic Ocean, to just
to the northwest of Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, to the
northern coastal sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the
easternmost parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico, just to the west of Guatemala. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 100 nm to 150 nm to
the east of the cold front from 28N northward. Isolated moderate
is elsewhere within 120 nm to the east of the cold front. Fresh to
strong southerly winds, and moderate to rough seas, are from 25N
northward between 65W and the cold front.

One surface ridge is along 23N70W, through 31N61W, to a 1020 mb
high pressure center that is near 35N57W. A second surface ridge
is along 14N27W 22N23W 27N17W,beyond 31N16W.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are: from 12N to 25N from 20W eastward;
from the ITCZ to 18N between 20W and 45W; and from the stationary
front to the 31N53W 25N75W line. Fresh SE-to-NE winds are from the
ITCZ southward from 35W westward. Moderate or slower wind speeds
are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to rough seas are
from 18N northward between the central Atlantic Ocean cold front/
stationary front and 70W. Moderate seas are in the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean.

Low pressure centered E of the area with a frontal boundary
extending SW of the low to the northern Leeward Islands is
bringing moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and rough seas to
10 ft to waters S of 22N and E of 70W. Winds will diminish to
gentle to moderate Thu morning with seas subsiding below 8 ft for
the regional waters of Puerto Rico by Thu evening. Meanwhile,
fresh to strong winds offshore northern Florida will continue
ahead and in the wake of a cold front extending from 31N76W SW to
just S of Cape Canaveral. The front will reach from SE of Bermuda
to the northern Bahamas adjacent waters by Thu evening and move E
of the area Fri evening. As this cold front crosses the region,
fresh to strong winds and rough seas will continue to impact the
northern offshore waters N of 28N.

$$
mt/nr
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