[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Nov 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

In the subtropical central Atlantic waters, a stationary front
extends from 31N42W to a 1004 mb low near 27N43W. Then, a cold
front extends from the low SW to 17N50W where it transitions to a
stationary front that continues to the northern Leeward Islands
adjacent waters. An earlier scatterometer pass confirmed gale-
force SW winds in the SE quadrant of the low. Rough seas in long
period N to NW swell associated with the frontal system and low
range between 8 to 18 ft. These seas covers approximately the
waters N of 17N between 35W and 66W, highest in the vicinity of
the low. The low will track SE today and tonight while it weakens and
then it will move NE and N of the area on Sat. Gale force winds
are forecast to end tonight, however strong to near gale force
winds will accompany this low through Sat.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details about the
gale-force wind warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains borders of
Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, curving to 09N18W and 06N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N18W, to 04N25W 04N35W 03N44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Marco Island, Florida to the northern
Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the cold front is forecast to stall later this
morning, and fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas over
the Bay of Campeche will diminish as well. The front will lift
north by Fri, bringing moderate to fresh winds in the northern
Gulf through the weekend. A new cold front will then push across
the basin late in the weekend into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...



For the forecast, a nearly-stationary subtropical ridge reaching
the northern portion of the basin will support the continuation of
moderate to fresh trade winds in the central and SW Caribbean
through Mon night. Fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean are
forecast to reach strong speeds Sat night into Mon night. Gentle
to moderate trades in the E basin will increase to moderate to
locally fresh Thu night into Mon night. Light to gentle variable
winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean the entire forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about an
ongoing Gale Warning over the central subtropical Atlantic waters.

A cold front extends from 31N72W SW to Boynton Beach. Low
pressure centered E of the area with a frontal boundary extending
SW of the low to the northern Leeward Islands is bringing moderate
NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft to waters S of 22N and E of
69W.

For the forecast W of 55W, winds over Puerto Rico offshore waters
will remain gentle to moderate today and seas will subside below
8 ft this evening. Fresh to strong winds offshore northern Florida
will continue ahead and in the wake of the cold front. The front
will reach from SE of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas adjacent
waters by this evening and move E of the area Fri evening. As this
cold front crosses the region, fresh to strong winds and rough
seas will continue to impact the northern offshore waters N of
28N. Otherwise, a new cold front is forecast to come off the coast
of NE Florida on Mon followed by moderate northerly winds.

$$
Ramos
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