[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222121
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Nov 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1002 mb low pressure centered near
29N46W and a cold front extends from the low to the northern Leeward
Islands. A recent ship observation confirmed winds to gale-force
are associated with the low pressure. Near-gale to gale force
winds and 12 to 21 ft seas are ongoing within 90 nm either side
of the front north of 24N. As this low tracks southeastward
through tonight, gales and higher seas at 17 to 20 ft will also
shift southeastward. This non- tropical low is forecast to move
southeastward across the central subtropical Atlantic over warmer
sea surface temperatures during the next couple of days, and
environmental conditions are marginally conducive for this system
to acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics. A subtropical
or tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week or
this weekend, as the system turns northeastward by the weekend.
This system has a low chance of development in 48 hours and medium
chance through 7 days.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website -
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore
Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on the gale
warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 04N30W to 08N48W. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are noted from 05N to 06N between 38W and 42W,
and from 07N to 09N between 45W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to near Merida,
Mexico on the northwest corner of the Yucatan peninsula. Strong
to near- gale force NW to N winds and 10 to 14 ft combined seas
follow the front south of 22N. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds 7
to 10 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of the front, except for
low wave heights off Texas and Louisiana. Light to gentle breezes
and 1 to 3 ft are evident over the southeast Gulf ahead of the
front. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted across
the Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will extend from SW Florida to the NE
Yucatan by Thu morning where the front will stall. The strong
winds and rough seas in the wake of the front over the western
Gulf will subside tonight into Thu. The front will lift north by
Fri, bringing moderate to fresh winds in the northern Gulf through
the weekend. A cold front will then push across the basin late in
the weekend into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough reaches from the northern Leeward Islands to a
1008 mb low pressure center near 13N76W, then continues southwest
toward the Costa Rica/Panama border. Moderate to fresh NE to E
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted north of the trough over the
north-central Caribbean. Gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are
noted elsewhere. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted across
the Caribbean.

For the forecast, a relaxed pressure gradient across the basin will
bring gentle to moderate breezes through the weekend. Winds will
pulse to fresh north of Colombia during the weekend with slight to
moderate seas. Winds could pulse to strong near Colombia by early
next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a gale warning associated with a low pressure in the central
subtropical Atlantic.

A surface ridge extends from the Grand Banks off Newfoundland to
Bermuda, between a cold front moving off the Georgia and Carolina
coastlines to the west, and the 1002 mb gale center near 29N46W to
the east. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas precede the
front north of 28N and west of 73W. In addition to the
aforementioned gales and very rough seas associated with the gale
center, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are evident west
of 55W to a line from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas, north of
20N. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas persist elsewhere
across the Atlantic except for fresh to strong NW winds off
Morocco.

For the forecast west of 55W, the gale center east of the area
with a cold front extending to Leeward Islands is bringing fresh
to strong winds and rough to very rough seas to waters east of
55W. These conditions will improve by tonight. However, large N
swell associated with this system continue to impact Puerto Rico,
the Lesser Antilles, and adjacent Atlantic passes through Thu
night, with seas completely subsiding across the waters by Fri.
Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds offshore northern Florida will
continue in advance of the next cold front pushing off the Florida
coast this evening into tonight. As this cold front crosses the
region through Thu night, fresh to strong winds and rough seas
will impact waters on both sides of the front, north of 28N.

$$
Christensen
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