[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Nov 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W, the continues westward to near 06N28W. The
ITCZ stretches from 06N28W to 07N56W. Scattered moderate to
convection is from 03N to 11N between 26W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front remains over the Gulf waters and extends from
northern Florida to the N-central Gulf near 27N90W to Veracruz,
Mexico. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail in the western
Gulf behind the front, with seas of 6 to 8 ft S of 23N. Seas of 3
to 5 ft are elsewhere W of the front. Moderate to fresh E winds
are in the Straits of Florida with seas of 3 to 5 ft. The
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is experiencing mainly gentle
winds generally out of the NE to E and 2 to 4 ft seas. Scattered
moderate convection is ongoing in the Bay of Campeche. A surface
trough is analyzed just W of the Yucatan peninsula.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will start to gradually
move southward today. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
prevail west of the front along the coast of Mexico through early
this week. A strengthening ridge over the SE United States may
support fresh to strong NE winds and building seas over the E Gulf
Mon-Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the eastern Caribbean and extends along
62W with scattered showers. Latest ASCAT pass and nearby surface
observations indicate the wind shift associated with the trough,
with fresh to strong E to SE winds. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are over the SW Caribbean, mainly S of 12N between
76W and 81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed
over the north-central Caribbean affecting parts of Hispaniola,
eastern Cuba and Jamaica. A diffluent pattern aloft on the W side
of an upper-level trough, that extends from Hispaniola to the SW
Caribbean, supports this convective activity.

Recent satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh
to strong trades over the central Caribbean as a result of the
pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high pressure
and low pressure in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within
these winds. Trades are fresh in the remainder of the eastern
Caribbean, and moderate to fresh in the western Caribbean. Seas
are generally 6 to 8 ft elsewhere across the east and central
Caribbean with seas of 3 to 5 ft in NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong
NE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are in the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the region and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to
strong winds across the central Caribbean and the Windward
Passage through today. The area of high pressure will gradually
shift eastward beginning tonight, bringing a slight decrease in
areal coverage of the strong winds through the week.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form
in the southwestern Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form late this week
as the system drifts northeastward in the Caribbean Sea.
Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 7 days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates most of the Atlantic forecast region. A
stationary front is just off NE Florida. Light to gentle winds
are along the ridge axis N of 25N while mainly moderate to fresh
trades are noted to the S. Some fresh winds are noted in the
vicinity of the Lesser Antilles, including also the Windward
Passage and offshore Hispaniola. Fresh NE winds are also present
in the far NE Atlantic, between the Canary Islands, and near the
coast of Western Sahara. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in N swell are north of
30N between 30W and 40W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft just E of the Lesser
Antilles. Seas in the 5 to 7 ft range are noted across much of
the waters E of 30W, with the highest seas associated with the
strongest winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge of high pressure along
29N will shift eastward through today. This will enable a cold
front to move into the waters between northeast Florida and
Bermuda early this week. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail N
of 27N and W of 70W through Tue. Fresh to strong E winds will
prevail over the waters N of Hispaniola, including the Windward
Passage through this morning.

$$
ERA
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