[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Nov 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland, in Sierra Leone. The ITCZ
passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W,
to 06N20W 08N28W 04N36W 05N38W 05N47W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm on
either side of the ITCZ between 26W and 38W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is
from 14N southward from 53W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from an Atlantic Ocean 31N79W 1018 mb
low pressure center, through the Florida coast that is along
28N, into the Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W. A stationary front
curves from 27N90W, to 25N94W, to the coast of Mexico along
19N96W, and then inland, toward the northwest, until 24N103W.
A surface trough passes through southern Belize, through
northern Guatemala, to 21N94W in the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 25N southward between 90W and the
stationary front. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate to locally strong, are spread
throughout much of the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate to rough seas are within 120 nm of the coast of
Mexico from 19N to 24N. Slight seas are elsewhere. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds are on the northern side of the
frontal boundary. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere.

A cold front from central Florida to near 27N90W becomes
stationary to 26N93W and to 20N97W. Fresh to strong northerly
winds will prevail west of the front along the coast of Mexico
through the middle of the week. A strengthening ridge over
the SE United States will support fresh to strong E winds and
building seas over the E Gulf through the middle of the week.
Marine conditions are expected to improve the second half of
the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 61W/63W, from 08N to 15N.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 15N southward between 53W and 70W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea. An inland surface trough covers
the areas that are from northern Nicaragua, through
Honduras, to southern Belize, and beyond northern
Guatemala, into the SW Gulf of Mexico.

It is likely for a broad area of low pressure to form in
the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual
development is possible after a few days. It is possible
that a tropical depression may form late this week. The
weather system is forecast to drift northeastward through
the western and central sections of the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong easterly winds are from the Greater Antilles
southward from 82W eastward. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
are moving through the Windward Passage, and in the NW corner
of the area. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the
SW corner. Rough seas are from the Greater Antilles southward
between 70W and 80W. Moderate to rough seas are from 70W
eastward. Moderate seas are from 20N northward in the NW
corner, and elsewhere from 84W eastward. Slight seas are
in the remainder of the area.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, beyond
81W/82W at the coast of Panama, and into the Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 14N southward from 74W westward.

The 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the period
that ended at 12/1200 UTC, are: 0.13 in San Juan in Puerto
Rico, and 0.09 in Trinidad.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the
region and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh
to strong winds across the central Caribbean today. The
area of high pressure will gradually shift eastward early
this week, bringing a slight decrease in areal coverage
of the strong winds through the week. Looking ahead,
an area of low pressure may develop in the SW Caribbean
the middle to end of the week. Gradual development is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form late this week while the system drifts northeastward
across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea.
There is currently a near 0 chance for tropical cyclone
development in the next 2 days, and a medium chance of
tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 31N79W 1018 mb low pressure
center, through the Florida coast along 28N, into the
Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 24N northward from 70W westward.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 29N65W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward between 40W and
73W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in
individual clusters of broken low level clouds, are in the
areas of the surface anticyclonic wind flow.

A surface trough passes through 31N35W to 26N40W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 60 nm on either side of the surface trough.

A surface ridge extends from a 36N12W 1025 mb high pressure
center, through 31N23W to 28N35W. Broad surface anticyclonic
wind flow is from 20N northward from the 26N40W 31N35W
surface trough eastward.

Moderate to rough seas are from 20N northward between 30W
and 50W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the area.
Fresh NE winds are from 25N southward from 70W westward.
Moderate easterly winds are from 25N southward between
60W and 70W. Fresh NE winds are from 20N southward between
40W and 60W. Mostly fresh to some moderate NE winds are from
the ITCZ to 22N between 30W and 40W. Moderate NE winds are
within 150 nm on either side of the line 21N29W 23N22W
26N17W 31N12W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean.

A ridge of high pressure along 29N will shift eastward,
enabling a cold front to move into the waters between
northeast Florida and Bermuda early this week. The front
will rapidly shift eastward over the northern waters,
with fresh to strong winds N of the front. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front N of the area by the
middle of the week. This will support fresh to strong winds
over the waters N of 25N and W of 70W the middle of the week,
with these winds shifting to the waters N of 27N and E of 70W
toward the end of the week.

$$
mt/al
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net