[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120514
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Nov 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, the continues westward to near 06N27W. The
ITCZ stretches from 06N27W to 06N40W then extends along the
coasts of French Guiana and Suriname to near 06N57W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 09N between
25W and 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front remains over the Gulf waters and extends from
northern Florida to the N-central Gulf near 27N90W to Veracruz,
Mexico. A band of multilayer clouds with embedded showers is
related to the front. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail in
the western Gulf behind the front. A recent altimeter pass
indicate seas of 6 to 8 ft in the wake of the front S of 23N, an
seas of 3 to 5 ft elsewhere W of the front. Moderate to locally
fresh E winds are in the Straits of Florida with seas of 3 to 5
ft. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is experiencing mainly
gentle winds generally out of the NE to E and 2 to 4 ft seas.
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing in the Bay of Campeche. A
surface trough is analyzed just W of the Yucatan peninsula.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will start to gradually
move southward on Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail
west of the front along the coast of Mexico through early next
week. A strengthening ridge over the SE United States may support
fresh to strong NE winds and building seas over the E Gulf early
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the eastern Caribbean and extends from
near Guadeloupe to NE Venezuela generating some shower activity. A
recent ASCAT pass indicates the wind shift associated with the
trough, with fresh to strong E to SE winds. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are over the SW Caribbean, mainly S of 12N between
77W and 80W. Showers and thunderstorms are also noted over parts
of Costa Rica and Panama likely associated with the eastern
extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are observed over the central Caribbean
affecting parts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and Jamaica. A
diffluent pattern aloft on the W side of an upper-level trough,
that extends from Hispaniola to the SW Caribbean, supports this
convective activity.

Recent satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh
to strong trades over the central Caribbean as a result of the
pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high pressure
and low pressure in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within
these winds. Trades are fresh in the remainder of the eastern
Caribbean, and moderate to fresh in the western Caribbean. Seas
are generally 6 to 8 ft elsewhere across the east and central
Caribbean with seas of 3 to 5 ft in NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong
NE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are in the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the region and low pressure over Colombia will support
fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean and the
Windward Passage through the weekend. The area of high pressure
will gradually shift eastward this weekend, bringing a slight
decrease in areal coverage of the strong winds.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form
in the southwestern Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week.
Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form late next week
as the system drifts northeastward in the Caribbean Sea.
Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 7 days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates most of the Atlantic forecast region. A
stationary front is just off NE Florida. Light to gentle winds
are along the ridge axis N of 24N while mainly moderate to locally
fresh trades are seen to the S. Some fresh winds are noted in the
vicinity of the Lesser Antilles, including also the Windward
Passage and offshore Hispaniola. Fresh NE winds are also present
in the far NE Atlantic, between the Canary Islands, and near the
coast of Western Sahara. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in N swell are north of
25N between 35W and 50W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft just E of the Lesser
Antilles. Seas in the 6 to 8 ft range are noted across much of the
waters E of 35W, with the highest seas associated with the
strongest winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge along 28N will shift eastward
through the weekend. This will enable a cold front to move into
the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda early next week.
Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail N of 27N and W of 70W Sun
through Tue. Fresh to strong E winds will prevail over the waters
N of Hispaniola, including the Windward Passage, through early
Sun.

$$
GR
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