[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112229
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W then
continues westward to 06N27W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N27W to
06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N E of 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to just S of
Louisiana to 1015 mb low pressure centered near 25N95W to the
coast of Mexico just N of Veracruz. Moderate to fresh N winds
prevail in the western Gulf behind the front. Five to seven ft
seas are within 120 nm of the coast of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate
to locally fresh E winds are in the Straits of Florida with seas
of 2-4 ft. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is experiencing
mainly gentle winds generally out of the NE to E and 2-4 ft seas.
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the front will start to gradually move
southward tonight and Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds will
prevail west of the front along the coast of Mexico through early
next week. A strengthening ridge over the SE United States may
support fresh to strong NE winds and building seas over the E Gulf
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trades prevail across the central Caribbean as a
result of the pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic
high pressure and low pressure in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 8-10
ft in the central Caribbean. Trades are fresh in the eastern
Caribbean, and moderate to fresh in the western Caribbean. Seas
are 4-7 ft in these sections of the basin.

1006 mb low pressure is analyzed near 10N77W in the SW Caribbean
along the East Pacific Monsoon Trough. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from Panama to 13N between 77W
and 82W. A westward moving surface trough approaching the Yucatan
Peninsula and the Gulf of Honduras is generated scattered moderate
convection W of 86W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the region and low pressure over Colombia will support
fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean and the
Windward Passage through the weekend. The area of high pressure
will gradually shift eastward this weekend, bringing a slight
decrease in areal coverage of the strong winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure is centered along 30N and is dominating much of the
tropical Atlantic weather. Light to gentle trades are present N
of 20N, with mainly moderate trades to the S. Some fresh winds are
noted the the vicinity of the Antilles, including the Windward
Passage and offshore Hispaniola. Fresh NE winds are also present
in the far NE Atlantic, in the vicinity of the Canary Islands
extending NE to offshore Morrocco. Scattered moderate convection
is noted in the vicinity of a surface trough from 08N to 13N
between 54W and 62W. Seas of 8-9 ft are north of 25N between 37W
and 45W. Seas are 4-7 ft across remaining waters, except north of
26N and west of 63W, where seas are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge of high pressure will
shift eastward through the weekend. This will enable a cold front
to move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda
early next week. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail N of 27N
and W of 70W Sun through Tue. Fresh to strong E winds will prevail
over the waters N of Hispaniola, including the Windward Passage,
through early Sun.

$$
KONARIK
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