[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Nov 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea-Guinea
Bissau border, then curves westward to near 08N29W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted near the trough from 03N to 09N
between the Liberia/Sierra Leone coast and 29W. An ITCZ continues
from 08N29W across 10N40W to 11N48W. Widely scattered convection
is found near and up to 70 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1020 mb high over the
Florida-Georgia border to near Veracruz, Mexico. A surface trough
is generating widely scattered showers at the north-central Gulf.
Convergent surface winds are causing similar conditions at the
southeastern Gulf and western Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, the
surface ridge is dominating much of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate E
to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will shift eastward through
today ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast
into the northwestern Gulf late tonight and early Fri morning.
The front will reach from the Sabine Pass to near Tampico, Mexico
by late Sat, then stall from near Panama City, Florida to about 90
nm off the mouth of the Rio Grande, then southward to Veracruz,
Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front over
the western Gulf along the coast of Mexico through early next
week. Looking ahead, a strengthening ridge over the southeastern
U.S. may force fresh to strong NE winds and building seas over
the E Gulf Mon and Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the west-central basin, including waters near
Jamaica. Aided by divergent flow aloft, convergent trades are
producing similar convection at the northeastern and east-central
basin. Moderate to fresh E trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
evident at the central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 2
to 4 ft exist at the southwestern basin. Mainly moderate trades
and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area will build
through Fri then gradually shift eastward through the weekend.
This will allow NE to E winds to increase, reaching fresh to
strong along with building seas in the Windward Passage and
across the central basin between Hispaniola and Colombia through
early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is triggering widely scattered showers over the
northwest Bahamas. At the central Atlantic, a stationary front
extends southwestward from 31N45W to 20N57W. Scattered moderate
convection is flaring up near and up to 150 nm east of this
boundary. Farther east, an upper-level low near 21N35W is
generating similar convection from 16N to 29N between 26W and 39W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

The 1021 mb Bermuda High near 29N68W is providing light to gentle
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 24N between the stationary
front and the Florida-Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate with
locally fresh ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present from 20N
to 24N west of the stationary front. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted at the central Atlantic north
of 10N between 36W and the stationary front/Lesser Antilles. Near
the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE
winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are found north of 14N between the
Africa coast and 36W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh SE and
monsoonal winds prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will be building
along 30N through Fri, then begins to gradually shift eastward
through the weekend. This pattern will support fresh to strong E
winds over the waters south of 23N through Mon, including the
approaches to the Windward Passage. Looking ahead, strong winds
and building seas will follow a cold front expected to move over
the waters between NE Florida and Bermuda on Sun and Mon.

$$

Chan
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