[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090845
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Nov 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 11N15W
to 07N30W. The ITCZ continues from 07N30W to 06N40W to 10N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 22W
and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic across
north Florida and the northern Gulf coast. Farther south, a
surface trough is evident off the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, reaching into the central Gulf. Earlier ship
observations indicated fresh E to SE winds over the south-central
Gulf east of the trough. Moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas
are noted elsewhere, except for light breezes and seas 2 ft or
less over the northeast Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure across the northern Gulf
will shift eastward through today ahead of a cold front expected
to move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf late tonight
to early Fri morning. The front will reach from the Sabine Pass to
near Tampico, Mexico by late Sat, then stall from near Panama
City, Florida to about 90 nm off the mouth of the Rio Grande, then
southward to Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds
will follow the front over the western Gulf along the coast of
Mexico through Sat night.

Looking ahead, model consensus shows an upper low moving through
the southern Rockies and southern plains early next week. This
will help deepen the pressure along the stalled front over the
western Gulf. This along with a strengthening ridge over the
southeastern United States may force fresh to strong NE winds and
building seas over the eastern Gulf Mon and Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NE winds on
the southern coast of Cuba north of 20N and east of 80W, south of
1018 mb high pressure between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda.
Fresh to strong NE winds are likely ongoing across the Windward
Passage and south of Cabo Beata on the southern coast of
Hispaniola, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate breezes and 2
to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere. A few clusters of showers and
thunderstorms are noted over the central Caribbean north of 14N,
associated with divergent flow aloft on the southern edge of an
upper trough northeast of the Bahamas.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area will build
through Fri then gradually shift eastward through the weekend.
This will allow increasing NE to E winds up to fresh or strong
speeds along with building seas in the Windward Passage and across
the central Caribbean between Hispaniola and Colombia through
early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad 1018 mb surface high pressure is centered between the
northern Bahamas and Bermuda. This is supporting fresh NE winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas south of 23N across the southern Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos Islands, with strong winds near the approaches of
the Windward Passage, and combined seas of 4 to 6 ft in open
waters. Gentle breezes and 3 to 4 ft seas are evident north of 23N
and west of 55W, under the ridge.

Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N45W to 20N58W. Fresh
to strong SW winds and 5 to 8 ft persist within 180 nm east the
front north of 28N, along with scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined
seas in NE swell are noted elsewhere over the subtropical and
tropical north Atlantic west of 40W. East of 40W, fresh to strong
NE winds and 8 to 11 ft combined seas are noted over the eastern
Atlantic between high pressure over the Azores and lower pressure
over north Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will be building along 30N through
Fri before it begins to gradually shift eastward through the weekend.
This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds over the waters
south of 23N through Mon, including the approaches to the
Windward Passage. Looking ahead, strong winds and building seas
will follow a cold front expected to move over the waters between
NE Florida and Bermuda on Sun and Mon.

$$
Christensen
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