[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea-Guinea
Bissau border, then curves westward to near 07N26W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N26W across 10N35W to 10N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 08W and 31W, and from
08N to 11N between 32W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging anchored by a 1017 mb high over northern Florida
continues to dominate the Gulf, providing gentle to moderate E to
SE winds and slight seas. A small area of locally fresh NE to E
winds is along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a surface
trough inland. Otherwise, a weak surface trough is in the central
Gulf lacking convection.

For the forecast, the surface trough in the central Gulf will
linger through the end of the week. A cold front is expected to
move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf late tonight and
early Fri morning. The front will reach from the Sabine Pass to
near Tampico, Mexico by late Sat, then stall from near Panama
City, Florida to about 90 nm off the mouth of the Rio Grande, then
southward to Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds
will follow the front over the western Gulf along the coast of
Mexico through early next week. Looking ahead, a strengthening
ridge over the SE United States may force fresh to strong NE winds
and building seas over the E Gulf early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the west-central basin, including waters near
Jamaica. Aided by divergent flow aloft, convergent trades are
producing similar convection at the northeastern and east-central
basin. Moderate to fresh E trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
evident at the central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 2
to 4 ft exist at the southwestern basin. Mainly moderate trades
and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area will build
through Fri then gradually shift eastward through the weekend.
This will allow NE to E winds to increase, reaching fresh to
strong along with building seas in the Windward Passage and
across the central basin between Hispaniola and Colombia through
early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is triggering widely scattered showers over the
northwest Bahamas. At the central Atlantic, a stationary front
extends southwestward from 31N45W to 20N57W. Scattered moderate
convection is flaring up near and up to 150 nm east of this
boundary. Farther east, an upper-level low near 21N35W is
generating similar convection from 16N to 29N between 26W and 39W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

The 1021 mb Bermuda High near 29N68W is providing light to gentle
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 24N between the stationary
front and the Florida-Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate with
locally fresh ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present from 20N
to 24N west of the stationary front. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted at the central Atlantic north
of 10N between 36W and the stationary front/Lesser Antilles. Near
the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE
winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are found north of 14N between the
Africa coast and 36W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh SE and
monsoonal winds prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will be building
along 30N through Fri, then begins to gradually shift eastward
through the weekend. This pattern will support fresh to strong E
winds over the waters south of 23N through Mon, including the
approaches to the Windward Passage. Looking ahead, strong winds
and building seas will follow a cold front expected to move over
the waters between NE Florida and Bermuda on Sun and Mon.

$$
Ramos
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