[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060933
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Nov 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W to 08N25W. The ITCZ extends from 08N25W
to 08N35W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is evident on
satellite imagery from 05N to 11N between 35W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh NE winds off the west
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, following a trough that is moving
into the coast of Veracruz. Seas are likely 4 to 6 ft in the area
of fresh winds. The same scatterometer pass also indicated fresh
NE winds near the Yucatan Channel. This is south of a broad ridge
extending across the northern Gulf, which is maintaining mostly
gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to moderate seas
across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure across the northern Gulf coast
will support mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas across the basin through mid week. Looking ahead,
the next front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough over the far northwest Caribbean is supporting scattered
showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Honduras and Belize.
Fresh NE winds are noted behind the front over the Yucatan Channel
and off the Caribbean coast of western Cuba. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
over the northwest Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trade winds and 3
to 5 ft seas are noted over the remainder of the basin, except for
light winds and and slight seas over the southwest Caribbean and
Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the large area of showers and thunderstorms off
the coast of Honduras associated with the broad trough over the
region will persist through today. High pressure building north
of the area will support fresh NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas across
the northwest Caribbean into Tue, and fresh NE winds across the
Windward Passage by mid week, and the eastern Caribbean by the late
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front extends from 1010 mb low pressure
near 31N72W to 26N73W, then continues as a trough through the
central Bahamas. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of
these features. Moderate to fresh N winds and 5 to 7 ft seas west of the trough
north of the northern Bahamas and off the coast of northeast
Florida. Another surface trough stretches from 24N58W to the
Anegada Passage, but this is weakening under subsident air aloft.
Farther north, divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered
showers and thunderstorms north of 25N between 52W and 55W. High
pressure centered over the Azores Islands is supporting moderate
to fresh E to SE winds across most of the remainder of the area,
except for fresh to strong NE flow off northwest Africa. Northerly
swell of 8 to 10 ft covers much of the area north of 20N and east
of 40W, with 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh N to NE winds and large NE swell
prevail behind the front through this morning across the offshore
waters of Florida, where seas are interacting with the
Gulfstream, but this will diminish later today as the frontal
trough shifts east and weak high pressure builds over the region.
The high pressure will build Wed through Thu and act to freshen
trade winds to the south of 24N Thu through Fri.

$$
Christensen
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