[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Nov 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W to 07N29W. The ITCZ extends from 07N29W
to 09N55W. Scattered moderate convection is evident on satellite
imagery from 05N to 13N between 17W and 29W, and from 05N to 10N
between 35W and 55W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb
high centered near 29N93W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft over most of the Gulf. Fresh N winds are noted
per scatterometer data in the Yucatan Channel with seas of 6 to 7
ft. Moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient persists across the
SE half of the basin and will support moderate to fresh NE winds
S of 25N through Mon morning before diminishing. Relatively
tranquil marine conditions are expected through Thu as high
pressure settles across the NE Gulf and dominates the region.
Looking ahead, the next front is expected to enter the NW Gulf
midday Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to flare-up over the NW
Caribbean, mainly S of 18N and W of 82W, including the Gulf of
Honduras. This convective activity is also impacting portions of
the eastern Yucatan peninsula, Belize, northern Honduras and NE
Nicaragua.

A few showers and thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the
Windward Islands. This activity is near the southern end of an
upper-level trough that crosses the Windward Islands into NE
Venezuela. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over
Panama and Costa Rica, and parts of northern Central America.

Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are funneling across the Yucatan
Channel into the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. An
area of moderate to fresh E winds is south of Jamaica. Moderate
or weaker easterly winds prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean
Sea. Seas are generally in the 4 to 6 ft range.

For the forecast, the large area of showers and thunderstorms off
the coast of Honduras associated with a broad trough over the
region will persist through Mon. Fresh northeast winds and rough
seas associated with a tight pressure gradient across the
northwestern Caribbean will gradually weaken through Mon
afternoon. Easterly trade winds will return to the basin on Tue
and become fresh to locally strong across central portions Thu
through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N72W to 27N72W, then a trough is
analyzed from 27N72W to 25N73W. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of these features.

A surface trough stretches from 23N56W to the northern Leeward
Islands. This is the reflection of an upper-level trough located
E of the Leeward Islands. Abundant cloudiness with embedded
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted SE of the trough
axis. A stationary front crosses the Canary Islands and continues
westward to 27N33W to 31N43W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of
12 to 16 ft in northerly swell are in the wake on the front
mainly E of 22W. Fresh NE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail
elsewhere N of 19N and E of 51W. High pressure of 1032 mb located
W of the Azores dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast
region. In the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh trades are
observed per satellite derived wind data. seas are 4 to 7 ft
within these winds. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Atlantic,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh N to NE winds and large NE swell
prevail behind the front tonight across the offshore waters of
Florida, where seas are interacting with the Gulfstream. Expect
winds and seas to diminish on Mon. Relatively weak high pressure
will settle in over the region from the NW early Wed through Thu
and act to freshen trade winds to the S of 24N Thu through Fri.

$$
ERA
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