[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052332
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 07N28W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N28W westward to 06N40W and to 09N55W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident on
satellite imagery from 05N to 10N between 18W and 52W. Clusters
of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted over parts of
Sierra Leone and Liberia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the southern United States extends a ridge
across the Gulf waters producing moderate to locally fresh NE to
E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft over most of the Gulf. Fresh to
locally strong N winds are noted per scatterometer data in the
Yucatan Channel with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Some patches of low level
clouds, with possible showers, are observed across the basin but
mainly over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.
Minatitlan has been reporting rain since this morning.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient persists across the
SE half of the basin and will support moderate to fresh NE winds
S of 25N through Mon morning before diminishing. Seas to 8 ft
across the Yucatan Channel will gradually subside tonight.
Relatively tranquil marine conditions are expected from Mon
through Thu as high pressure settles across the NE Gulf and
dominates the region. Looking ahead, the next front is expected
to enter the NW Gulf midday Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to flare-up over the NW
Caribbean, mainly S of 20N and W of 82W, including the Gulf of
Honduras. This convective activity is also impacting portions of
the eastern Yucatan peninsula, Belize, northern Honduras and NE
Nicaragua. A surface trough is analyzed across the region and
extends from southern Belize across the N coast of Honduras to
near 13N82W. Abundant tropical moisture will persist in this
area through at least Tue while spreading westward into
Guatemala, SE Mexico and the Bay of Campeche. Locally heavy rain
are expected.
A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convection.

A few showers and thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the
Windward Islands. This activity is near the southern end of an
upper-level trough that crosses the Windward Islands into NE
Venezuela. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over
Panama and Costa Rica, and parts of northern Central America.

Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are funneling across the Yucatan
Channel into the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. An
area of moderate to locally fresh E winds is south of Jamaica.
Moderate or weaker easterly winds prevail elsewhere across the
Caribbean Sea. Seas are generally in the 4 to 6 ft range.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure over Central America
continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms
across the Caribbean W of 82W. This active weather is expected to
persist across the Gulf of Honduras through Mon. Fresh northeast
winds and rough seas associated with a tight pressure gradient
across the northwestern Caribbean will gradually weaken through
Mon afternoon. Easterly trade winds will return to the basin on
Tue and become fresh to locally strong across central portions
Thu through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure near 31N72W
to SE Florida. W of the trough, moderate to fresh northerly
winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present. A few showers and
thunderstorms are found north of 26N between 65W and 72W. A ridge
extends across Florida and the NW Bahamas.

A surface trough stretches from 23N56W to the northern Leeward
Islands. This is likely the reflection of an upper-level trough
located E of the Leeward Islands. Abundant cloudiness with
embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted SE of the
trough axis. A stationary front crosses the Canary Islands and
continues westward to near 27N35W, then NW to near 31N42W. A band
of mainly low clouds and a few showers is related to the front.
Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 10 to 15 ft in northerly
swell are in the wake on the front. High pressure of 1031 mb
located W of the Azores dominates the remainder of the Atlantic
forecast region. In the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh
trades are observed per satellite derived wind data. seas are 4
to 7 ft within these winds. Elsewhere in the central and eastern
Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a frontal trough extends from 31N74W
to S Florida and will move E-SE and gradually dissipate across
the central Bahamas Mon night. Fresh N to NE winds and large NE
swell prevail behind the front tonight across the offshore waters
of Florida, where seas are interacting with the Gulfstream.
Expect winds and seas to diminish there on Mon. Relatively weak
high pressure will settle in over the region from the NW early
Wed through Thu and act to freshen trade winds to the S of 24N
Thu through Fri.

$$
GR
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