[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061637
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Nov 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1635 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1033 mb
high pressure system over the Azores and lower pressures in NW
Africa result in strong to gale-force NE winds in the Agadir and
Tarfaya High Seas Marine Zones. Seas are currently peaking near 15
ft off Morocco and forecast to peak near 17 ft on Tue. Gale-force
winds are expected to continue through at least 07/1200 UTC with
severe gusts. Winds and seas will diminish late this week. For
more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed
on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the tropical Atlantic through the
coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues westward to 09N20W. The
ITCZ stretches from 09N20W to 08N40W and to 10N58W. Interaction
between the ITCZ and a broad upper level trough in the central
Atlantic support scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
from 07N to 12N and between 26W and 40W. Similar convection is
present from 07N to 13N and between 48W and 59W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An expansive ridge over the NE United States extends southwestward
into the Gulf of Mexico sustaining moderate or weaker E-SE winds
and seas of 2-4 ft. No deep convection is noted in the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure across the northern Gulf coast
will support mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to
moderate seas across the basin through mid week. Looking ahead,
the next front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough in the Gulf of Honduras and plenty of tropical
moisture support numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms off
the coasts of Honduras and Belize. Farther south, the east Pacific
monsoon trough enters the SW Caribbean through northern Panama and
continues eastward to northern Colombia. A few showers are seen on
satellite imagery near this trough. The remainder of the Caribbean
Sea is under generally dry weather conditions. The weak pressure
gradient across the basin sustain primarily moderate to locally
fresh NE-E winds and 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms off the
coast of Honduras associated with a broad trough over the region
will persist through today. High pressure building north of the
area will support fresh northeast winds and 3 to 5 ft seas across
the northwest Caribbean into Tue, and fresh northeast winds across
the Windward Passage by mid week and the eastern Caribbean by
late in the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section on the Gale Warning for
the Agadir and Tarfaya High Seas Zones.

A surface trough extends southward from a weak 1010 mb low
pressure near 31N72W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed ahead of the surface trough to 60W and
north of 26W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that
strong to gale-force southerly winds are associated with these
storms. Mariners in the area should use precaution. Moderate to
locally fresh northerly winds are occurring behind the surface
trough, along with seas of 4-7 ft. The remainder of the SW North
Atlantic, west of 60W, is in a weak high pressure pattern
that supports light to gentle winds and moderate seas.

The central and eastern Atlantic are dominated by a strong high
pressure system over the Azores. In the northeast Atlantic, a
shear line is analyzed along 25N, between 15W and 35W. Fresh to
strong NE-E winds are present north of the shear line, including
the water passages of the Canary Islands. Rough seas are present
north of the shear line. Satellite-derived wind data also depict
fresh to locally strong NE winds from 15N to 23N and east of 25W.
Seas in these waters are 7-9 ft. In the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a trough extends from low pressure of
1010 mb low pressure near 31N72W southwestward to the NW Bahamas.
Another trough extends from the low to 26N72W and to the
southeastern Bahamas, and yet another trough extends from near
31N59W southwestward to 27N68W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms moving eastward are N of 26N between 60W and 81W.
Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are over the western
half of the area. These winds will diminish into tonight as high
pressure builds over the region in the wake of the troughs as they
shift eastward through Tue. The high pressure will slide eastward
and strengthen through Fri resulting in increasing trade winds to
the south of 24N and east of the Bahamas, including approaches to
Windward Passage, Thu through Fri night.

$$
DELGADO
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