[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032335
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Nov 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Significant Swell: A stationary front extends from
31N62W to the NW Bahamas and NW Cuba. Showers are noted within
120 nm to the east of the boundary. Earlier scatterometer
satellite pass captured fresh to near gale- force NE winds behind
the front. Seas of 12-14 ft are found north of 29N and between 62W
and 73W. Seas are beginning to subside near the Bahamas with 8 to
9 ft east of the islands. Winds and seas will diminish Sat.
Please read the latest High Seas forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for details about this warning.

Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: Invest 97L is
located near the coast of northern Nicaragua, around 14N83W, with
a central pressure of 1007 mb. The broad disturbance is also
interacting with a surface trough to the north and a stationary
front in the far NW Caribbean Sea. Numerous scattered to isolated
strong convection is observed on satellite imagery west of 78W.
Fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of 6-10 ft are found north of
15N and west of 76W. This system is gradually moving westward
toward Central America. Heavy rains are already affecting portions
of Central America and the Cayman Islands, and the unstable
weather conditions will continue through early next week. The
expected heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Further development of this
system appears unlikely before it moves inland over Central
America tonight or on Saturday. Please refer to the local weather
services for more information. This system has a low chance of
development over the next 48 hours and next 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W to 08N51W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 13N between 23W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front remains draped across the Florida Straits and
into the Yucatan Channel. No deep convection is noted near this
boundary. The rest of the Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a strong
ridge centered off New England. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures associated with the frontal boundary
sustain fresh to strong NE winds over most of the eastern half of
the basin and the southern Gulf. Seas in the area described are
6-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the Yucatan Channel
and in the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and 3-5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, a tight gradient is allowing for strong
northeast winds and rough seas over the southeastern Gulf and
Straits of Florida. These conditions will diminish Sat as high
pressure over the region slides eastward and weakens through the
weekend and into early next week. Seas to 11 ft in the
southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida will gradually subside
through early Sat evening. Relatively quite marine conditions are
expected from Sun well into next week as relatively weak high
pressure remains over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the potential
heavy rainfall for Central America related to Invest 97L.

Aside from Invest 97L, an upper level trough extends into the NE
Caribbean Sea, supporting scattered moderate convection over the
SE Caribbean. A generally dry environment is noted over the
eastern Greater Antilles and the Leeward Islands. Fresh to locally
strong easterly winds are evident in the central and eastern
Caribbean, along with seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken through early
Sat. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas associated
with the front and its remnants will prevail in the northwestern
Caribbean through early Sat. Fresh to strong winds in the north-
central and portions of the SW Caribbean associated with AL97 will
continue to affect these areas through Sat morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for a Significant Swell
region in the Western Atlantic.

A surface trough over the central Atlantic, extending from 25N47W
to 15N53W, is interacting with an upper level trough to the
northwest. This is resulting in isolated to scattered moderate
convection from 13N to 27N between 42W and 59W. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present in the
area described.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a large
subtropical ridge centered south of Nova Scotia. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in western Africa
and the deep tropics sustain fresh to strong NE-E winds south of
23N and east of 40W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. In the far
northeast Atlantic, fresh to strong northerly winds are found off
Morocco and the Canary Islands. Seas of 8-14 ft are present north
of 27N and east of 24W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the stationary front in the western Atlantic
will lift back to the northwest as a warm front tonight, then
weaken to a trough Sat over the northern Bahamas offshore waters
through the weekend. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough
seas behind the front will diminish Sat. Relatively weak high
pressure will settle in over the region well into next week.

$$
AReinhart
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