[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Nov 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1725 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Significant Swell: A stationary front extends from
31N61W to the NW Bahamas and NW Cuba. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 120 nm to the east of the boundary. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to near gale-force NE
winds behind the front. Seas of 12-14 ft are found north of 29N
and between 61W and 71W and up to 12 ft off the central Bahamas.
Winds and seas will diminish quickly Sat. Please read the latest
High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the
Offshore Waters Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details about
this warning.

Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: Invest 97L is
located about a hundred miles east of northern Nicaragua, near
14N82W, with a central pressure of 1007 mb. The broad disturbance
is also interacting with a surface trough to the north and a
stationary front in the far NW Caribbean Sea. Numerous scattered
to isolated strong convection is observed on satellite imagery
west of 76W. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of 6-10 ft are
found north of 15N and west of 76W. This system is gradually
moving westward toward Central America. Heavy rains are already
affecting portions of Central America and the Cayman Islands, and
the unstable weather conditions will continue through early next
week. The expected heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Further
development of this system appears unlikely before it moves inland
over Central America tonight or on Saturday. Please refer to the
local weather services for more information. This system has a low
chance of development over the next 48 hours and next 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the tropical Atlantic through the coast
of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to
09N23W. The ITCZ extends from 09N23W to 08N33W. No deep convection
is present near the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front remains draped across the Florida Straits and
into the Yucatan Channel. No deep convection is noted near this
boundary. The rest of the Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a strong
ridge centered off New England. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures associated with the frontal boundary
sustain fresh to strong NE winds over most of the eastern half of
the basin and the southern Gulf. Seas in the area described are
6-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the Yucatan Channel.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, a tight gradient is allowing for strong northeast
winds and rough seas over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of
Florida. These conditions will diminish today as high pressure
over the region slides eastward and weakens through the weekend
and into early next week. Seas to 11 ft in the southeastern Gulf
and Straits of Florida will gradually subside through early Sat
evening. Marine conditions further improve Sun into early next
week as relatively weak high pressure remains over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the potential
heavy rainfall for Central America related to Invest 97L.

Aside from Invest 97L, an upper level trough extends into the NE
Caribbean Sea, supporting scattered moderate convection over the
SE Caribbean. A generally dry environment envelops the eastern
Greater Antilles and the Leeward Islands. Fresh to locally strong
easterly winds are evident in the central and eastern Caribbean,
along with seas of 4-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
2-4 ft seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure continues to produce a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
western Caribbean Sea. Further development of this system appears
unlikely before it moves inland over Central America tonight or
on Saturday. A stationary front extending from the western tip of
Cuba southwestward to Cozumel will weaken through early Sat.
Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas associated with
the front and its remnants will prevail in the northwestern
Caribbean through early Sat. Fresh to strong winds in the north-
central and portions of the SW Caribbean associated with AL97
will continue to affect these areas through Sat morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for a Significant Swell
region in the Western Atlantic.

A surface trough over the central Atlantic, extending from 24N45W
to 15N48W, is interacting with an upper level trough to the
northwest, resulting in isolated to scattered moderate convection
from 08N to 25N and between 38W and 52W. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present in the area
described.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a large
subtropical ridge centered south of Nova Scotia. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in western Africa
and the deep tropics sustain fresh to strong NE-E winds south of
23N and east of 35W. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. In the far
northeast Atlantic, fresh to strong northerly winds are found off
Morocco and the Canary Islands. Seas of 8-14 ft are present north
of 27N and east of 24W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from near 31N61W to the
central Bahamas and to the western tip of Cuba. The front will
lift back to the northwest as a weakening trough today before
dissipating Sat. The remnant trough is forecast to be over the
northern Bahamas offshore waters through the weekend. Fresh to
strong northeast winds and rough seas behind the front will
diminish Sat. Relatively weak high pressure will settle in over
the region through early next week.

$$
DELGADO
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