[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Nov 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: a pronounced stationary front extends
from 31N62W to 24N80W. Expect strong to gale-force easterly winds
and rough seas of 12 to 14 ft up to 150 nm behind the front
behind 73W and 85W, including the northwest Bahamas and Florida
Straits through this morning. Afterward, both winds and seas will
gradually diminish through Saturday. Please read the latest High
Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the
Offshore Waters Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details about
this warning.

Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: A disturbance
(Invest 97L) is located in the west-central Caribbean near
14N80W with a central pressure of 1007 mb. Numerous heavy showers
and scattered thunderstorms prevail from 12N to 19N west of 77W,
including the Gulf of Honduras. This low is gradually moving
westward toward Central America. Development, if any, of this
system is expected to be slow to occur before it moves inland over
Central America Friday night or Saturday. Plenty of tropical
moisture and an unstable atmosphere is forecast to produce heavy
rains over portions of central America from Belize and Guatemala
southward to Panama through early next week. This rainfall is
likely to result in flash flooding and possible landslides. Please
refer to the local weather services for more information. This
system has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours and
next 7 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N13W to 06N16W. An
ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 06N16W to 01N34W, then
resumes W of a surface trough near 09N40W to 12N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is found up to 180 nm along either side of the
ITCZ west of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front curves southwestward from the central Bahamas
across the Florida Straits to near the Yucatan Channel. Scattered
showers are occurring along and up to 150 nm north of the front.
A surface ridge extends northeastward from a 1022 mb high near
Veracruz, Mexico to the Florida Panhandle. Fresh to locally
strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are found at the
southeastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas exist across the central
and northeastern Gulf, and the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate
ENE to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, strong high pressure continue to build over the
area in the wake of a frontal boundary currently SE of the area.
The associated tight gradient between the front and strong high
pressure continue to support strong to near gale force NE winds
and rough seas in the Florida Straits and portions of the SE gulf.
These winds are forecast to diminish today. Fresh northerly winds
in the Bay of Campeche and seas to 9 ft will diminish today.
Conditions further improve Sun into early next week as high
pressure settles over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the potential
heavy rainfall for Central America related to Invest AL97.

A broad surface trough curves northeastward from the
aforementioned Invest AL97 to beyond eastern Cuba. An upper-
level low near 15N64W is triggering isolated thunderstorms across
the eastern and south-central basin. Fresh to strong NNE to ENE
winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at the northwestern basin.
Fresh with locally strong E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted at
the west-central and north-central basin. Light to gentle winds
and seas at 1 to 3 ft dominate the southwestern basin. Moderate to
fresh E to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist elsewhere in the
basin.

For the forecast, Invest AL97 is expected to bring heavy rains
over portions of Jamaica through tonight and across Central
America through early next week. The stationary front will remain
stationary while it gradually weakens through tonight. Fresh to
strong northeast winds and rough seas associated with the front
and its remnants will prevail in the NW Caribbean through early
Sat. Fresh to strong winds in the north-central and portions of
the SW Caribbean associated with AL97 will continue to affect
these regions through Sat morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for a Gale Warning in
the western Atlantic.

A pronounced stationary front extends from east of Bermuda across
31N62W and the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen along and up to 160 nm northwest of the
front. A surface trough curves southwestward from 25N70W across
the southeast Bahamas to beyond eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring near the central Bahamas. A 1017 mb low is
analyzed near 27N57W with no significant convection. An upper-
level low near 23N51W is producing scattered showers from 20N to
26N between 50W and 55W. Another surface trough extends from
22N44W to 19N44W with scattered moderate convection along the
northern half of the area.

Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE winds and seas
of 8 to 10 ft are evident behind the stationary front north of
27N between 65W and Florida/Georgia coast. East of the front,
gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist north of
24N west of 39W. To the south, moderate with locally fresh ENE to
E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted from 10N to 24N between 38W
and the Lesser Antilles. For the eastern Atlantic, moderate to
fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft dominate north of
08N between the Africa coast and 38W, including the Canary and
Cabo Verde Islands. Light to gentle with locally moderate SE winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast, the stationary front extends from 31N62W to 24N80W.
The front will start to weaken while lifting to the NW today before
dissipating Sat. The remnant trough is forecast to be over the
northern Bahamas offshore waters through the weekend. Ongoing
gale force NE winds and rough seas behind the front, and across
the central Bahamas offshore waters and the southern Florida
seaboard will continue through early this morning.

$$
ERA
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