[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Nov 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Significant Swell: A persistent stationary front
extends southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across 31N61W to
beyond the northwest Bahamas. Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted up to 100 nm along either side
of this boundary. Latest satellite scatterometer data suggest
moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to ENE winds behind the
front. Recent satellite altimeter data along with model guidance
reveal 10 to 13 ft seas in large NE swell, north of 29N between
62W and 70W. Seas range from 7 to 10 ft elsewhere behind the
front, including waters near the northwest Bahamas and east of
Florida. Both winds and seas will subside further Sat and Sat
evening. Please read the latest High Seas forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for details about this warning.

Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: Invest AL97 is
located near the coast of northeastern Nicaragua, just south of
the Nicaragua-Honduras border with a central pressure of 1005 mb.
This broad disturbance is interacting with a monsoon trough from
the Eastern Pacific to generate heavy rain and scattered
thunderstorms across the west-central Caribbean Basin, including
the Gulf of Honduras and coastal areas near the Nicaragua-
Honduras border. This disturbance will gradually move westward
inland across Nicaragua and Honduras through early next week.
Expect heavy rain and strong thunderstorms to spread northwestward
into nearby Guatemala and Belize this weekend, and possible
southward across Costa Rica and Panama early next week. This will
increase the potential for flash flooding, along with mudslides in
areas of hilly terrain. Further development of this system
appears unlikely as it is already moving over land. Please refer
to the local weather services for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near
Dakar, then reaches westward to southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 14N21W. Farther south, an ITCZ stretches from 05N20W
to 05N35W, then turns northwestward to 12N49W. Widely scattered to
scattered moderate convection is noted up to 100 nm along either
side of the ITCZ. There is no significant convection near the
monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front remains across the Florida Straits and Yucatan
Channel with widely scattered showers evident up to 50 nm along
either side of this feature. A broad surface trough is producing
similar conditions over the central Gulf, including the eastern
Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high
over the Carolinas and lower pressures associated with the
stationary front is sustaining fresh with locally strong NE winds
and seas of 6 to 10 ft across the eastern Gulf, including the
Yucatan Channel. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 4
to 6 ft seas are present for the central and southwestern Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds
and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, winds and seas across the eastern and central
Gulf will diminish Sat as the high slides eastward and weakens
through early next week. Relatively quite marine conditions are
expected from Sun well into next week as relatively weak high
pressure remains over the region.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about potential heavy
rainfall across Central America related to Invest AL97.

Aside from Invest AL97, an upper-level trough extends
northeastward from an upper low near the ABC Islands to beyond the
northern Leeward Islands. Divergent winds near and south of these
features are triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the south-central and southeastern basin,
including the Windward Islands and Atlantic waters just to the
east. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE winds and
seas of 5 to 8 ft exist across much of the basin, except the
southwestern portion which gentle to moderate southerly winds and
3 to 5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the stationary front just north of the Cuba and
near the Yucatan Channel will weaken through early Sat. Fresh to
strong NE winds and rough seas associated with AL97 and the front
will prevail in the northwestern basin through early Sat. Fresh
to strong winds in the north-central and portions of the SW
Caribbean will continue to affect these areas through Sat
morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for significant swell
and rough seas in the Western Atlantic.

Other than the stationary front mentioned in the Special Features
section, an elongated upper-level low near 22N55W is causing
widely scattered moderate convection from 20N to 28N between 40W
and 60W. Combining with a broad surface trough to the southeast,
scattered moderate convection is seen from 13N to 20N between 43W
and 54W.

North of 26N between 30W and the stationary front/central and
southeast Bahamas, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 6
to 8 ft in moderate northerly swell exist. Farther south from 10N
to 26N, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and
5 to 8 ft seas in moderate E swell dominate between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate
to fresh NNE to ENE winds and seas at 8 to 12 ft in large
northerly swell are noted north of 12N between the Africa coast
and 30W/35W. Light to gentle southeasterly and monsoonal westerly
winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed swells prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will drift
back to the northwest as a warm front tonight, then weaken to a
trough Sat over the northwest Bahamas offshore waters through the
weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas behind the front
will diminish Sat. Relatively weak high pressure will settle in
over the region well into next week.

$$

Chan
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