[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 250836
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
500 AM AST Sun Jun 25 2023

The low-level center of Cindy remains located on the northwestern
edge of a burst of deep convection, although night infrared
satellite imagery indicate that the low-level circulation is
becoming less well defined. The latest satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB are lower than the previous advisory,
and the initial wind speed has been lowered to 45 kt.

Cindy continues to move towards the northwest with an initial
motion of 320/18 kt. Cindy should move generally in that direction
with a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days
into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The new track forecast is
similar to the previous one, and lies near the consensus aids.

The intensity forecast is high confidence in the near term with
strong shear continuing to cause Cindy to weaken during the next
day or two. This will likely result in the cyclone degenerating
into a trough or broad low, and the current NHC prediction is for
dissipation in 48 hours, perhaps conservatively. However, there are
some global models suggesting that the remnants of Cindy could find
an area of lighter shear and interact with an upper-level trough
that would allow the system to regenerate in several days.  While
this is a plausible solution, the system will likely be over cooler
SSTs at that time within only a small area of potentially conducive
upper-level wind conditions.  Thus, regeneration will not be
included in the official forecast at this time, but this scenario
will be continue to be monitored.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 20.3N  57.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 21.9N  58.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 23.7N  60.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 25.2N  61.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake
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