[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 250233
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
1100 PM AST Sat Jun 24 2023

Cindy has not changed much in organization during the last several
hours, with the low-level center located near the western or
northwestern edge of the main convective mass.  While this mass has
decreased in coverage this evening, that has not yet resulted in a
significant decrease in the satellite intensity estimates.  Thus,
the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 50 kt.
Satellite imagery shows strong southwesterly upper-level winds
blowing toward the cyclone, which is resulting in 20-30 kt of shear
over the system.

Cindy has slowed its forward speed a little with the initial motion
now 315/15 kt.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the northeast and east
of the cyclone should continue to steer it generally northwestward
for the next couple of days.  The new track forecast is basically
an update of the previous forecast and lies just to the left
of the various consensus models.  Cindy should pass well northeast
of the northernmost Leeward Islands tomorrow into Monday.

The intensity forecast is a tale of two parts.  The first part,
which is high confidence, is that the current strong shear will
continue for another 36-48 h, causing Cindy to weaken.  This will
most likely result in the cyclone degenerating to a trough or broad
low pressure area between 48-60 h.  The second part, which is lower
confidence, involves the possibility of regeneration after 72 h.
The majority of the guidance suggests the possibility that Cindy
will find an area of lighter shear and possibly undergo a favorable
interaction with an upper-level trough that would allow the system
to regenerate.  The GFS is the most aggressive with this
development, but all of the models except the ECMWF show it to some
degree.  A possible regeneration will not be included in the
official forecast at this time, but could be added in later
advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 18.7N  55.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 20.3N  57.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 22.4N  59.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 24.2N  60.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 25.7N  61.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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