[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 251437
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
1100 AM AST Sun Jun 25 2023

This morning, the low-level center of Cindy is once again separating
away from overnight deep convection. In addition, the circulation
also appears to have become more diffuse, and available cloud
motions from the GOES-16 derived motion winds suggest that the
circulation could be close to opening up on the earth-relative
frame. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
are either steady state or have decreased from the previous cycle,
and objective estimates from ADT and SATCON are also lower. The
initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this advisory.
Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is scheduled to
investigate Cindy this afternoon and will hopefully provide more
data to determine if the storm still has a closed circulation.

Cindy remains on a northwestward track this morning at 315/15 kt.
Not much has changed with the track forecast, with the system's
northwestward motion expected to gradually slow down as it moves
into a weakness in the low- to mid-level ridging. The latest NHC
track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and remains
close to the track consensus guidance.

The highly asymmetric structure of Cindy is currently a result of 30
kt of southwesterly vertical winds shear displacing convection away
from the low-level center. If anything, this shear is forecast to
increase further over the next 24 hours, likely leading to further
weakening. Even the GFS, which yesterday was adamant about keeping
the system stronger in the short-term, is now indicating
degeneration into a trough over the next couple of days. The latest
NHC forecast also shows the tropical cyclone opening up into a
trough in the next 36 h and this could occur sooner than indicated
here given how diffuse the circulation is currently.

After Cindy dissipates as a tropical cyclone, there remains support
from global and regional hurricane model guidance that Cindy could
regenerate farther to the north in several days when the shear
begins to abate. Enough uncertainty exists in the future
thermodynamic environment to not explicitly show regeneration in the
official forecast at this time, but this scenario will be continue
to be monitored.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 20.9N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 22.3N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 23.9N  60.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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