[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jun 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Bret is over the eastern Caribbean near 13.1N
66.6W at 23/2100 UTC or 145 nm ENE of Curacao, and moving W at 18
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas near the
center are up to 17 ft. Seas of 12 to 16 ft extend up to 105 nm
from the center, mainly in the northern quadrant. Westerly wind
shear results in the convection occurring mainly over the easterly
quadrant. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Bret is expected to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea
by Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Cindy is over the western tropical Atlantic near
13.3N 49.3W at 23/2100 UTC or 710 nm E of the Lesser Antilles,
and moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen up to 95 nm
south, and 140 nm northwest of the center. Wave heights near the
center are up to 16 ft. Seas of 12 to 15 kt extend up to 75 nm
mainly in the northern quadrant. Cindy is expected to maintain
tropical storm strength as it passes well northeast of the
Leeward Islands on Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from 14N southward,
and moving west around 5 kt. Scattered showers are evident from
05N to 09N between 20W and 30W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from near the Cayman Islands
southward to central Panama, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This
tropical wave was also evident in the latest sounding from
Kingston, Jamaica. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring between the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Senegal-Gambia
border, then extends southwestward to 06N30W. An ITCZ continues
from 06N30W to 04N37W, then curves northwestward to 13N45W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up
near the coast of Gambia and Senegal. Scattered moderate
convection is seen near and up to 210 nm north of the ITCZ east
of 40W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms at the southwestern Caribbean
waters and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front across New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle
continues to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
northeastern Gulf. A diurnal surface trough over the eastern Bay
of Campeche is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms just west and north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending westward from central
Florida to near Tampico, Mexico is still dominating the region.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft
are found at the northwestern and northeastern Gulf. Fresh
easterly winds and 4 to 5 ft seas are evident at the south-central
Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle
winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are noted at the east-central Gulf.
Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will prevail through mid-week
and a high pressure center is expected to develop over the east-
central Gulf Sat night into Mon. This will promote gentle to
moderate return flow north of 22N. In the south-central gulf,
fresh to locally strong winds will pulse north of the Yucatan
Peninsula each night through Wed due to a diurnal trough. Smoke
from agricultural fires in Mexico is producing some hazy
conditions over sections of the western Gulf south of 25N.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Bret.

Convergent trades are triggering isolated thunderstorms near
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Wave sections for additional weather in the basin.
Outside the direct influence of Tropical Storm Bret, moderate to
fresh with locally strong E to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft
are noted for the eastern basin. Fresh to strong E to ENE winds
and 7 to 11 ft seas are present at the north-central basin. Light
to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in northerly to northeasterly
swell are seen between the Venezuela coast and the ABC Islands,
and north of Panama and Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate E to ESE
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are evident between the Cayman
Islands/Jamaica and Cuba. Moderate to fresh with locally strong
ENE to ESE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the
basin, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bret will move to 13.1N 69.1W
Sat morning, then to the central basin near 13.2N 72.6W Sat
afternoon before weakening to a tropical depression near 13.2N
76.0W Sun morning. Bret is expected to dissipate Sun afternoon in
the southwestern basin, while its remnants will continue to move
westward through Mon. Farther east, Tropical Storm Cindy will
move to 14.5N 51.2W Sat morning, then to 16.3N 53.8W Sat
afternoon. It will reach northeast of Leeward Islands near 18.1N
56.4W Sun morning, 19.9N 59.0W Sun afternoon, then continue to
move well north of the area through the early part of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical
Storm Cindy.

Convergent southerly winds are causing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms near the central Florida east coast, and
north of 29N between 73W and 75W. A stationary front curves
southwestward from near the Azores across 31N34W and a 1016 mb low
near 27N53W to 26N59W. Scattered showers are present near and up
to 110 nm north of these features. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in
the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate with locally fresh ENE to SSE winds and seas at 3 to 6
ft are found north of 19N between 50W and Florida coast/Bahamas.
For the central Atlantic, the large dome of 1022 mb high near
26N39W is supporting light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas
north of 24N between 24W and 50W. Near the Canary Islands,
moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE trades and seas of 4 to
8 ft dominate north of 17N between the Africa coast and 24W. In
the tropical Atlantic outside the influence of Tropical Storm
Cindy, moderate to fresh NE to SE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are
evident from 10N to 19N/24N between the Cabo Verde Islands and
Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and monsoonal
winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Cindy will move to
14.5N 51.2W Sat morning, 16.3N 53.8W Sat afternoon, then to 18.1N
56.4W Sun morning. It will reach near 19.9N 59.0W Sun afternoon,
21.6N 61.1W Mon morning, and 23.1N 63.1W Mon afternoon. Cindy will
weaken to a remnant low near 24.8N 65.2W Tue afternoon.
Elsewhere, high pressure extending from the north-central Atlantic
to the Bahamas will lift northward through early Sun ahead of
Tropical Storm Cindy.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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