[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jun 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Bret is over the eastern Caribbean near 13.3N
64.7W at 23/1500 UTC or 205 nm W of St. Vincent, moving W at 18
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Seas near the
center are up to 25 ft. Seas 12 ft or greater extend up to 105 nm
from the center, especially in the northern quadrant. Westerly
wind shear results in the convection occurring mainly over the
easterly quadrant, affecting the eastern Caribbean and Windward
Islands. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Bret is expected to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea
by Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Cindy is over the tropical Atlantic near 12.5N 48.0W
at 23/1500 UTC or 795 nm E of the Lesser Antilles, moving WNW at
13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active within 150 nm of the center.
Wave heights near the center are up to 11 ft. Cindy is expected
to maintain tropical storm strength as it moves to the northeast
of the Leeward Islands through Sunday. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W, from 03N to 14N,
moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident
from 05N to 09N between 22W and 27W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from Jamaica to eastern
Panama, moving W around 10 kt. This tropical wave was also
evident in the latest sounding from Kingston, Jamaica. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of 20N
and between 75W and 84W. The convection in the SW Caribbean is
enhanced by the eastern Pacific monsoon trough that extends from
northern Costa Rica to NW Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is evident from the coast of Guinea-Bissau
from 12N16N to 06N30W. The ITCZ begins at 06N30W and extends to
13N44W. In addition the convection already discussed in the
tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is evident
from 05N to 09N and east of 18W. Similar convection is seen from
03N to 08N and between 32W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are present in the north-
central Gulf of Mexico due to a stationary frontal boundary along
the northern Gulf coast. Elsewhere, no significant convection is
evident at this time. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds
are noted south of 25N and between 90W and 95W. Seas are 3-5 ft in
the area described. Elsewhere outside of convection, light to
gentle southerly winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from southwest Florida
to the upper Texas coast will move little through early next week.
Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night
from tonight through Sun night as a trough develops each evening
and moves offshore. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is
producing some hazy conditions over sections of the western Gulf
south of 25N.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Bret.

Outside of the convection being produced by Bret and the tropical
wave, only weak isolated showers are noted across the Caribbean
Sea due to shallow pockets of moisture. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass captured strong easterly winds off the coast of NW
Colombia. Seas in the area are 6-9 ft. In the remainder of the
Caribbean south of 20N, moderate to fresh easterly breezes
prevail, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bret is near 13.3N 64.7W 1002 mb
at 11 AM EDT moving W at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt
gusts 60 kt. Bret will move to 13.4N 67.0W this evening, 13.5N
70.5W Sat morning, 13.6N 74.0W Sat evening, weaken to a tropical
depression near 13.6N 77.4W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun
evening. The remnant trough of Bret will continue across the
southwest Caribbean through Mon. Farther east, Tropical Storm
Cindy is near 12.5N 48.0W 1003 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 14
kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Cindy will move to
13.6N 50.0W this evening, 15.2N 52.5W Sat morning, 16.9N 55.2W Sat
evening, and 18.7N 57.7W Sun morning. Cindy will move to the
northeast of Leeward Islands near 20.2N 60.0W Sun evening, then
continue to move well north of the area through the early part of
the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical
Storm Cindy.

A line of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
present north of 28N and between 75W and 79W. Outside of
convection, light winds are east to southeast, with seas 3-4 ft.
A 1017 mb low pressure is located near 27N53W and a warm front
extends from the low center to 45W, while a cold front extends
southward. Showers are noted north of the warm front. Moderate
northeasterly winds are present with seas 3-5 ft. Another area of
moderate winds and seas 3-4 ft are present near the Canary
Islands. Elsewhere, no significant convection is noted at this
time as high pressure centered northeast of Bermuda dominates the
sensible weather. Winds across the basins are light and variable
at times with seat 3-4 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Cindy near 12.5N
48.0W 1003 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Cindy will move to 13.6N 50.0W this
evening, 15.2N 52.5W Sat morning, 16.9N 55.2W Sat evening, 18.7N
57.7W Sun morning, 20.2N 60.0W Sun evening, and 21.8N 62.2W Mon
morning. Cindy will weaken to a tropical depression near 24.0N
64.9W early Tue. Elsewhere, high pressure extending from the
north-central Atlantic to the central Bahamas will lift northward
through early Sun ahead of T.S. Cindy.


$$
KRV/SDR
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