[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jun 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 24/0300 UTC, is near 12.9N
68.1W. Bret is about 65 nm to the NE of Curacao. Bret is moving
W, or 270 degrees, 16 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt. Tropical storm-force winds are:
within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW
quadrant; and within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The
sea heights are reaching 12 feet:
within 105 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 15 nm of
the center in the SE quadrant; within 15 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant; and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant.
The maximum sea heights are reaching 16 feet. The sea heights are
ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet from 20N to 25N between 60W and 70W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 12N to 14N
between 66W and 68W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is in the remainder of the area that is from 11N to 16N between
60W and 70W. Bret is moving through the southern sections of the
Caribbean Sea. The forecast shows that Bret will be dissipated in
about the next 36 hours or so. Please, monitor the progress of
Bret if you have interests in the ABC Islands.

Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Cindy, at 24/0300 UTC, is near 13.9N
50.4W, or about 640 nm to the E of the Lesser Antilles. T.S.
Cindy is moving WNW, or 295 degrees, 13 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Tropical storm-force
winds are within 50 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within
0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center
in the SW quadrant; and within 40 nm of the center in the NW
quadrant. The sea heights are reaching 12 feet: within 90 nm of
the center in the NE quadrant; within 45 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and
within 75 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea
heights are reaching 16 feet. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is within 165 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm in the
N semicircle, and from 315 nm to 560 nm in the W semicircle.

Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 5 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm to the west of the
tropical wave from 04N to 10N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 19N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within
300 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N, to 08N24W. The ITCZ is along 07N27W 05N38W
07N46W. Precipitation: disorganized isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 15N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the southern half of Florida,
toward the upper Texas Gulf coast.

A NW-to-SE oriented inland surface trough extends from NW coastal
Honduras, through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and northwestward in
Mexico. Precipitation: numerous strong from El Salvador to the
western sections of Honduras, to the eastern sections of
Guatemala, to the southern sections of Belize. Another area of
numerous strong covers the eastern half of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec, and offshore the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle beyond south
central Louisiana. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is in the coastal waters and in the coastal plains
from the middle Texas Gulf coast to SW Louisiana. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow is moving from the SE U.S.A. into the eastern
half of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico.

The sea heights are reaching 2 feet to the east of the line that
is from the offshore waters of the NW Yucatan Peninsula to the
Tampa Florida metropolitan area. The sea heights are ranging from
3 feet to 4 feet elsewhere. An exception is for 5 feet off the
coast of the Florida Big Bend, and in parts of the west central
Gulf of Mexico. Moderate or slower wind speeds are from 90W
eastward. Strong winds are from 22N southward between 91W and 93W.
Fresh wind speeds are elsewhere from 25N southward between 90W
and 95W. Mostly moderate wind speeds cover the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico.

High pressure extending from southwest Florida to the upper Texas
coast will move little through early next week. Fresh winds will
pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night from tonight
through mid week as a trough develops each evening and moves
offshore. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is producing
some hazy conditions over the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Bret that is about 150 nm to the north of the coast
of Venezuela along 67W/68W.

The monsoon trough passes through 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica. The tropical wave is along 81W/82W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within 360 nm to the south of the
monsoon trough between 70W and 78W, in parts of Venezuela and
Colombia.

Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in the offshore
waters of the southern part of Haiti. Isolated moderate to locally
strong covers much of Cuba.

The sea heights are ranging from 12 feet to 18 feet in the SE
corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 16N southward, with T.S. Bret.
The sea heights that are covering the rest of the Caribbean Sea
that is from 70W eastward are ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet. The
sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet between 70W and 80W.
An exception is for 9 feet in the offshore waters of the eastern
half of Panama. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet in the
SW corner. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet in the NW
corner. The wind speeds that are between 60W and 70W decrease in
speed, from 16N northward, from strong to fresh to moderate. These
are the wind speeds for the areas that are away from T.S. Bret.
Fresh to moderate wind speeds cover much of the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. An exception is for some strong NE wind speeds from
11N to 14N between 75W and 82W.

Tropical Storm Bret is near 12.9N 68.1W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT,
moving W at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to
55 kt. Bret will move to 13.0N 70.6W Sat morning, 13.2N 74.1W Sat
evening, and dissipate Sun morning. Farther east, Tropical Storm
Cindy is over the tropical Atlantic near 13.9N 50.4W 1003 mb at 11
PM EDT, moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt. Cindy will move to 15.2N 52.4W Sat morning,
17.1N 54.9W Sat evening, then northeast of the Leeward Islands
near 19.1N 57.5W Sun morning. Cindy will gradually weaken as it
moves farther north of the Leeward Islands through mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details
about Tropical Storm Cindy.

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 27N northward from 70W westward. This precipitation is to the
east of the stationary front that is in the SE U.S.A.

A dissipating stationary front is along 31N33W, to 28N40W, to
29N50W, to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 27N54W.
A cold front continues from the 1016 mb low pressure center, to
22N59W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
26N northward between 30W and 50W, with an upper level trough.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the
area that is from 20N northward between 30W and 60W. Strong winds
are within 120 nm of the 1016 mb low pressure center in the NW
quadrant. Fresh winds are elsewhere within 300 nm of the center in
the NW quadrant. Fresh winds are from 20N to 24N between 65W and
71W. Moderate or slower wind speeds, and sea heights that range
from 3 feet to 6 feet, are in the remainder of the area that is
from 20N northward from 50W westward. An exception is for sea
heights to range from 6 feet to 7 feet from 27N northward between
50W and the 1016 mb low pressure center. The sea heights are
ranging from 2 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of the area that is
from 50W eastward. Strong N winds are within 240 nm of the coast
of Africa from 18N to 24N. Fresh winds are from 11N to 28N from
45W eastward. Moderate or slower wind speeds cover the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean from 50W eastward.

Tropical Storm Cindy is in the tropical Atlantic near 13.9N 50.4W
1003 mb at 11 PM EDT, moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Cindy will move to the northeast of the
Leeward Islands near 19.1N 57.5W by Sun morning, then continue to
20.9N 59.6W Sun evening, 22.5N 61.5W Mon morning, and 23.7N 62.9W
Mon evening. Cindy will weaken to a remnant low well north of the
Leeward Islands by late Tue. Elsewhere, high pressure extending
from the north-central Atlantic to the Bahamas will lift northward
through early Sun ahead of T.S. Cindy.

$$
mt/ec
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