[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 230903
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number  16...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032023
500 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

Updated to include discontinuation of the Tropical Storm Warning
for Dominica.

Bret's center is now over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, but
convective activity extends more than 300 n mi to the east across
the Windward Islands and adjacent Atlantic waters.  An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured peak 850-mb flight-level
winds of 60 kt and SFMR winds of 49 kt to the north of the center
on its last pass before heading back to base, and the initial
intensity is therefore maintained at 50 kt.  The plane had found
that Bret's central pressure had dropped again, back down to 1001
mb.

Bret continues to move quickly westward, or 270/16 kt, to the south
of an area of high pressure located over the western Atlantic.  The
subtropical ridge is expected to continue steering Bret quickly
westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the
next couple of days.  There are no changes to the track model
guidance, or the track forecast reasoning, and the official NHC
forecast is a little faster than the model consensus aids, hedging
toward the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

Bret is approaching an upper-level trough located over the eastern
Caribbean Sea, and the resulting deep-layer shear over the storm is
analyzed to be about 25 kt out of the west-southwest.  Even stronger
shear and a dry mid-level environment are expected to cause Bret to
gradually weaken during the next couple of days, with global model
fields showing the system degenerating into a trough over the
central Caribbean Sea some time over the weekend.  The NHC forecast
shows dissipation by Sunday, but some model fields suggest it could
happen earlier than that.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is moving westward over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, but
trailing rainbands with embedded gusty winds continue to affect
portions of the Windward Islands.  These conditions should gradually
subside through the day.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for St. Vincent and
the Grenadines, St. Lucia, and Martinique.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 13.4N  62.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 13.6N  65.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 13.8N  68.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 13.9N  72.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 13.9N  75.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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