[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 230849
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
500 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

Cindy is continuing to show signs of improvement based on satellite
imagery.  Deep convection with cold cloud tops of less than -80
degrees C are near the estimated low-level center, an indication the
vertical wind shear is likely weakening.  The initial intensity has
been increased to 40 kt based on a blend of the 3.0 and 2.5
subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB,
respectively.

The reasoning behind the intensity forecast is unchanged.  SHIPS
model guidance indicates that Cindy will remain embedded within an
area of weak vertical wind shear for the next day or so, shielding
it from the surrounding drier mid-level airmass.  Given the
relatively conducive environmental and oceanic conditions,  gradual
strengthening is expected.  Beyond 48 h, the deep-layer shear is
forecast to increased which, in combination with the dry air, will
likely weaken Cindy early next week.  The official intensity
forecast is very similar to the previous prediction.

Cindy is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt.  This motion is
expected to continue during the next several days as Cindy moves
around the southwest periphery of a subtropical ridge.  The track
guidance for the cyclone has shifted northward in the 3-5 day range,
and the NHC track forecast has been nudged northward as a result.
This track still keeps Cindy well to the northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 12.1N  46.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 12.9N  48.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 14.3N  51.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 16.0N  53.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 17.7N  56.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 19.4N  59.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 20.9N  61.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 23.5N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 25.7N  67.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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