[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 231436
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032023
1100 AM AST Fri Jun 23 2023

Bret is maintaining its intensity for now.  Deep convection has
increased over the center during the past few hours and there
remains a larger area of disorganized thunderstorms on the system's
east side.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating
the storm this morning and on their last pass they found maximum
flight-level winds of 60 kt and peak SFMR winds around 45 kt.  These
data support holding the intensity steady at 50 kt.  Bret is pulling
away from the Lesser Antilles, but showers and thunderstorms along
with gusty winds will likely continue across portions of that island
chain for much of the day.

Bret is moving beneath an upper-level trough axis currently, but by
tonight it should be located on the west side of the trough, which
should result in a notable increase in northerly vertical wind shear
and intrusions of dry air.  Therefore, steady weakening is expected
and the NHC intensity forecast follows the theme of the model
guidance.  Bret will likely open into a trough on Sunday.

The tropical storm continues to move quickly westward at 17 kt on
the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  This motion should
continue during the next couple of days taking Bret across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea.  The NHC track forecast is a
touch to the south of the previous one, primarily due to the initial
position, and remains on the fast side of the model guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bret is moving westward over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, but
trailing rainbands with embedded gusty winds continue to affect
portions of the Windward Islands.  These conditions should gradually
subside through the day.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 13.3N  64.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 13.4N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 13.5N  70.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 13.6N  74.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 13.6N  77.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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