[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jun 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall in Cuba and the Bahamas: The deep upper-level
trough is moving eastward from the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
northern Florida into the western Atlantic. This allows divergent
upper-level flow east of the trough axis to gradually shift away
from Cuba and the Bahamas. Meanwhile, latest water vapor satellite
imagery also reveals decreasing moisture at the low to mid levels
across Cuba and the Bahamas. As a result, conditions are expected
to improve for these areas later today. Residual moisture and
modest convergent southerly surface winds can still cause widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Cuba and the
Bahamas. Please refer to the latest forecast from your national
meteorological service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from 10N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered showers are
within 50 nm of the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 10N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection
is seen from 03N to 09N between 47W and 51W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from 11N southward through
northern Venezuela and eastern Colombia, and moving west around 10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen over southern Venezuela
and east-central Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal coast
near 14N17W to 05N30W. The ITCZ continues from 05N30W to 05N48W
then W of a tropical wave near 06N50W to 06N56W. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is flaring up south of the monsoon trough
off the Guinea Bissau, Sierra Leone, and Liberia coasts from 02N
to 13N and E of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the ITCZ from 02N to 09N between 30W and 57W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An outflow boundary across southeastern Texas, southern Louisiana
and Mississippi is causing scattered showers off the Louisiana
coast. Otherwise, a modest 1011 mb high over the north- central
Gulf is dominating much of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and
seas of 1 to 2 ft are evident across the north- central and
eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate E
to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, low pressure over Texas is bringing moderate to
fresh SE winds across the western Gulf, with light to gentle
winds elsewhere. As a frontal boundary sinks farther south over
Texas by midweek, winds will increase fresh to locally strong and
expand to the central Gulf. Meanwhile, winds will become moderate
to locally fresh in the eastern Gulf by Tue night into Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
Excessive Rainfall in Cuba.

An Atlantic Ridge extends westward from a large dome of 1021 mb
high at the central Atlantic to just west of Jamaica. Convergent
southerly winds near the ridge axis are generating widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the southwestern
basin northward across the Cayman Islands to eastern and central
Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also occurring in
the SW basin off the Colombia and Panama coasts. Fresh with
locally strong ENE trades and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted at the
south- central basin north of Colombia. Moderate with locally
fresh ENE to ESE trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the north-
central and eastern basin. Light to gentle with locally moderate
ESE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for elsewhere in the
basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the central
Atlantic high pressure and the Colombia low will tighten this
week. This will result in trade winds increasing fresh to strong
while significantly expanding in areal coverage across the central
Caribbean tonight through most of the week. Moderate to rough
seas can be expected in the central Caribbean during this time.
Locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras during the
afternoon and evening hours Mon and Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
Excessive Rainfall for the Bahamas.

A stationary front curves westward from southwest of Bermuda
across 30N78W. A warm front extends from 30N78W to the
Georgia/South Carolina border. Convergent southerly winds south
of this boundary are coupling with divergent flow aloft to trigger
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms off the east coast of
Florida and nearby Atlantic waters, off the northern Bahamas in
addition to across the central Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in
the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist
south and southeast of the stationary front north of 24N between
55W and 75W. Underneath the 1021 mb high pressure in the central
Atlantic near 25N52W, winds are light to gentle. Pressure gradient
north of the high pressure is leading to moderate to locally
fresh winds with seas 5 to 7 ft. Moderate winds are noted south of
the high to the ITCZ with seas to 5 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a
stationary front is noted along 30N31W with a trough extending
from 29N24W to 22N32W. Light to gentle winds prevail across this
area with seas 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, gentle to moderate winds can be
expected across the western Atlantic through Mon. As a cold front
approaches the US East Coast, S to SW moderate to locally fresh
winds will prevail Mon night through middle of the week. Enhanced
thunderstorms will likely come to an end today over portions of
the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas. Winds will pulse to
strong north of Hispaniola Mon and Tue evening. Later in the week,
fresh winds will increase in coverage N of 29N as a frontal
boundary lingers near the southeast U.S. coast.

$$
AReinhart
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