[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall in Cuba and the Bahamas: The deep upper-level
trough is moving eastward from the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
northern Florida into the western Atlantic. This allows divergent
upper-level flow east of the trough axis to gradually shift away
from Cuba and the Bahamas. Meanwhile, latest water vapor satellite
imagery also reveals decreasing moisture at the low to mid levels
across Cuba and the Bahamas. As a result, conditions are expected
to improve across Cuba tonight, and for the Bahamas on Sun.
Residual moisture and modest convergent southerly surface winds
can still cause widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms for both locations through Sun. Please refer to the
latest forecast from your national meteorological service for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from 10N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered showers are
noted from 05N to 08N between 26W and 29W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 10N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection
is seen from 04N to 08N between 46W and 48W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from 11N southward through
northern Venezuela and eastern Colombia, and moving west around
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen over southern
Venezuela and east-central Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal coast
near Dakar and continues southwestward across 10N22W to 05N29W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up
south of the trough from 03N to 08N between the Sierra
Leone/Liberia coast and 21W. An ITCZ continues westward from
05N29W across 03N37W to 04N46W, then northwestward from 05N49W to
near 07N55W. Scattered moderate convection is present near and up
to 180 nm north of both ITCZ segments.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An outflow boundary across southeastern Texas, southern Louisiana
and Mississippi is causing scattered heavy showers and
thunderstorms near the Texas-Louisiana border, New Orleans and
adjacent Gulf waters. Otherwise, a modest 1010 mb high over the
north-central Gulf is dominating much of the Gulf. Light to gentle
winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are evident across the north-central
and eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient over the Gulf will
maintain light to gentle winds across most of the Gulf, except
moderate winds in the western Gulf. Early next week, a low
pressure along a frontal boundary over Texas will bring moderate
to locally fresh return flow over the western Gulf. By the middle
of next week, fresh southerly winds should spread to the central
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
Excessive Rainfall in Cuba.

An Atlantic Ridge extends westward from a large dome of 1021 mb
high at the central Atlantic to just west of Jamaica. Convergent
southerly winds near the ridge axis are generating widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the southwestern
basin northward across the Cayman Islands to eastern and central
Cuba. Fresh with locally strong ENE trades and 5 to 6 ft seas are
noted at the south-central basin north of Colombia. Moderate with
locally fresh ENE to ESE trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate
the north-central and eastern basin. Light to gentle with locally
moderate ESE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for elsewhere
in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the central
Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure at northern Colombia
will maintain fresh to locally strong winds in the south central
basin through Sun. Moderate to fresh winds can be expected over
the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun. Easterly trade
winds will increase to between fresh and strong while
significantly expanding northward across the central basin Sun
night through late next week. Locally strong winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours Mon
through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
Excessive Rainfall for the Bahamas.

A stationary front curves westward from southwest of Bermuda
across 31N69W to near the Florida/Georgia border. Convergent
southerly winds south of this boundary are coupling with divergent
flow aloft to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
over eastern Florida and nearby Atlantic waters, and also over the
central Bahamas. Widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found farther northeast, north of 25N between
60W and 73W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist
south and southeast of the stationary front north of 24N between
55W and 75W. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 2 to 5 ft seas
are noted north of 19N between the Africa coast and Georgia-
Florida coast, including the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate
NNE to ENE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist near the Cabo Verde
Islands from 14N to 19N between the central Africa coast and 27W,
and farther west from 05N to 19N between 27W and the Lesser
Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds with 3 to
5 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, as the stationary front weakens,
the pressure gradient between this front and high pressure in the
central Atlantic is going to relax. This will allow gentle to
moderate winds across the western Atlantic to persist tonight
through Mon. Afterward, moderate to locally fresh winds are
expected Mon night through midweek. Showers and thunderstorms
will likely continue over portions of the western Atlantic,
including the Bahamas, through Sun. By the middle of next week,
SW winds could increase a bit north of 29N as a frontal boundary
lingers near the southeast U.S. coast.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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