[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111638
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jun 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 33W from 11N
southward, and moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted within 120 nm either side of the
wave axis from 04.5N to 06.5N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is estimated to be along 53W
from 10N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is seen within 300 nm E and within 150 nm W of
the wave axis from 04N to 09N.

A Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from 14N southward through
western Venezuela and eastern Colombia, and moving west around 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen over western Venezuela
and eastern Colombia along and within 120 nm E of the wave axis
from 06N to 11N. Scattered moderate convection is also noted over
southern Colombia from 01N to 05N between 71.5W and 75.5W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal coast
near 14N17W to 08N27W. The ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 06N31W,
then continues from 06N34W to 06N52W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 11W and 20W. Scattered
showers are from 04.5N to 08.5N between 35.5W and 41W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 07N to 11N
between 57W and 63W, including over Trinidad.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad and weak high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic
westward into the Gulf is combining with low pressure over NW
Texas to produce moderate to fresh S winds across the NW Gulf and
west-central Gulf. Buoy observations indicate that seas have
recently built to 4 to 5 ft in this area. Mainly gentle winds
prevail elsewhere, where seas are 1 to 3 ft. No significant areas
of precipitation are noted over the basin at this time. Over the
SW Gulf and western Bay of Campeche, smoke due to agricultural
fires is likely currently reducing visibility to 2 to 4 nm in some
areas, based on recent coastal surface observations from Mexico
and satellite imagery.

For the forecast, as a frontal boundary sinks farther south over
Texas by midweek, winds will increase to fresh to locally strong
and expand to the central Gulf. Meanwhile, winds will become
moderate to locally fresh in the eastern Gulf by Tue night into
Wed. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy
skies across the SW Gulf today.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad Atlantic surface ridge extends westward from a 1021 mb
high pressure centered near 26N52W to South Florida. Some clouds
and isolated showers are noted over the NW Caribbean and Cuba. In
the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection south of 14N and
west of 77W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
also noted over the far southeast Caribbean, south of 12.5N and
east of 65W. Mainly fresh E to SE trade winds prevail across the
eastern and central Caribbean, where seas are 5 to 7 ft, except
for 6 to 8 ft offshore Colombia. Moderate SE winds prevail over
the NW Caribbean, with seas 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the central Atlantic and the Colombia low will tighten this
week. This will result in trade winds increasing to fresh to
strong while significantly expanding in areal coverage across the
central Caribbean tonight through most of the week. Winds will
pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras during the afternoon and
evening hours Mon and Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough extends from near the coast of South
Carolina to the Turks and Caicos Islands. At the surface, a
stationary front extends from 30N64W to 31N75W. Also, a weak
surface trough is analyzed from 29.5N74W to 30.5N80W. Instability
and upper-level divergence near and to the east of the upper-
level trough axis is inducing scattered moderate convection from
23N to 28.5N between 66W and 79W. Gentle to moderate southerly
winds extend across the western Atlantic, with seas 3 to 5 ft.

Over the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N57W to
30N64W. Isolated to scattered showers are within 120 nm S of the
front. Moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds precede the front,
mainly N of 28N and E of 59W to about 46W. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in
this area. A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 26N52W. Broad
ridging extends W from the high to South Florida, and east-
northeastward from the high to near 29N41W. Light to gentle winds
prevail across much of the northeastern Atlantic portion of the
area with 3 to 5 ft seas. Farther south, moderate to fresh ENE
trade winds prevail S of 22N and W of 45W, where recent altimeter
data indicates seas are 4 to 6 ft. Between Mauritania and the
Cabo Verde Islands, recent ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh
NNE winds, while recent altimeter data shows seas of 5-6 ft in the
area. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere with slight to
moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the current pattern with the ridge
extending along 25/26N will maintain gentle to moderate winds
across the western Atlantic through Mon. As a cold front
approaches the U.S. East Coast, S to SW moderate to locally fresh
winds will prevail Mon night through middle of the week.
Thunderstorms will likely diminish in coverage later today over
portions of the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas. Winds
will pulse to strong north of Hispaniola Mon and Tue afternoon and
evenings. Later in the week, fresh winds will increase in
coverage N of 29N as a frontal boundary lingers near the southeast
U.S. coast.

$$
Hagen
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