[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jun 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall in Cuba and in the Bahamas:

Moist southerly middle level wind flow, and enhanced rising air
motion due to a strong upper level jet stream that is just to the
northwest of this area, will increase the potential for heavy
rainshowers with thunder. Expect the greatest amounts of rain from
this afternoon through Sat afternoon, in parts of eastern and
central Cuba and in the central Bahamas. It is possible that these
rains may cause flooding, especially in the mountainous areas of
eastern and central Cuba. Please, read the latest forecast from
your national meteorological service for more information. Locally
heavy rain has been reported in central and eastern Cuba. A
maximum rainfall amount was for about 4 inches (108.1 mm) in
Jiquima, Holguin during the last 24 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W, from 13N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to strong is
within 210 nm to the east of the tropical wave from the ITCZ to
08N, and within 210 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 02N
to 07N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W, from 12N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 05N to 08N between 51W
and 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 13N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 110 nm to
260 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 02N to 06N, in
southern Venezuela.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 17N southward
between 77W and 86W, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
and in the eastern parts of Honduras and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N, to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W, to 06N20W,
06N34W, 04N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 02N to 08N between 09W and 19W, and from
02N to 10N between 35W and 48W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 06W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern is in the Gulf waters. Expect mainly
light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot
to 2 feet. A weak surface trough is in the north central Gulf of
Mexico, with no nearby significant deep convective precipitation.
Rainshowers are possible throughout the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico, in association with broad multilevel cyclonic wind flow.

High pressure generally will prevail across the basin through the
end of the week, with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Moderate
return flow will develop across the western Gulf over the upcoming
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the Special Features section, for information about
the heavy rainfall that is forecast to affect Cuba through
Saturday afternoon.

An 80W/81W tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 17N southward between 77W and 86W, in the
SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and in the eastern parts of
Honduras and Nicaragua.

Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong covers the areas that
are from the western shores of Jamaica to SE Cuba. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N to 27N between
68W and 80W. This precipitation is on the eastern edge of
multilevel cyclonic wind flow, that mostly is in the Gulf of
Mexico, but that is reaching parts of the NW Caribbean Sea also.

Fresh to strong trade winds are from 15N southward between 69W
and 73W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere between Hispaniola
and northern Colombia/NW Venezuela. Light to gentle E to SE winds
are in the NW Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 4 feet to
6 feet in the central and eastern sections, and they range from
2 feet to 4 feet in the NW Caribbean.

Weak high pressure across the central Tropical Atlantic will
shift NW and strengthen through Thu, increasing winds and seas
over the eastern and central Caribbean through early Fri. Active
weather is expected across N central portions through Fri.
Atlantic high pressure will shift NE and weaken Fri night through
the weekend, with winds and seas across the basin diminishing
modestly. A return to a more typical easterly trade wind regime is
expected early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for information about
the heavy rainfall that is forecast to affect the Bahamas through
Saturday afternoon.

A cold front passes through 31N44W to 27N59W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong are to the northwest of the line that runs through
31N44W to 22N70W. A surface trough is along 31N40W 20N50W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of
the surface trough.

A cold front curves through 31N12W, to 23N20W, to a 1012 mb low
pressure center that is near 21N33W, to 14N43W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N northward from 43W
eastward. A 1018 mb high pressure center is on top of the Cabo
Verde Islands. A second 1018 mb high pressure center is near
24N61W.

The winds that are to the east of 31N12W-to-14N43W cold front
north of 27N and east of 20W are SW fresh to locally strong with
seas of 6-8 ft. Similar wind speeds are between the Canary
Islands. The wind speeds are moderate or slower, with sea heights
generally in the range from 4 feet to 6 feet, in the remainder of
the Atlantic Ocean.

High pressure will build westward across the forecast waters
through late Fri. Active weather is expected across the Bahamas
and adjacent Atlantic to 70W though Fri. Atlantic high pressure
will then drift NE over the upcoming weekend, leading to a
decrease in winds and seas across the area waters.

$$
MT/al
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