[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall - Cuba and Bahamas:
Moist southerly mid-level flow combined with enhanced rising air
motion due to a strong upper-level jet positioned just northwest
of this area will increase the potential for heavy rain and
strong thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur
from this afternoon through Sat afternoon across portions of
eastern and central Cuba and the central Bahamas. These rains
could cause flooding, especially over mountainous areas in
eastern and central Cuba. Please see the latest forecast from
your national meteorological service for more information.
Locally heavy rain has been reported in central and east Cuba,
with a maximum rainfall amount of around 4 inches (108.1 mm) in
Jiquima, Holguin in the past 24 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 30W, from
13N southward, moving westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted where the wave meets the
ITCZ from 03N-07N between 28W-32W.

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 51W/52W,
from 12N southward, moving westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered
showers are near the wave axis.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 68W/69W, from
13N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. The wave
appears to enhance convection over western Venezuela.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 79W, from 14N
southward extending into the eastern Pacific region, and moving
westward at 10 knots. A cluster of moderate to strong convection
is near the northern end of the wave axis, covering the waters
from 12N-14N between 79W-82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
then continues to 09N16W. The ITCZ extends from 09N16W to 06N35W
to 04N51W on the coast of Brazil. A large cluster of moderate to
strong convection is seen from 03.5N-07N between 08W-12W. This
convective activity, likely associated with the next tropical
wave, is affecting much of Liberia. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection exists from 05N-08N between 22W-30W, and from
06N-09N between 40W and 45W. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted from 02N-05N from 32W-40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern dominates the Gulf waters supporting
mainly light to gentle winds, with seas in the 1-2 ft range. A
1009 mb low pressure is analyzed near 27N89W with a surface
trough extending westward to near Brownsville, Texas. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are noted over the eastern Gulf,
particularly E of 88W, and over parts of Florida in association
with an upper-level trough that extends from SE Louisiana to the
central Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally prevail across
the basin through the end of the week, with mainly gentle to
moderate winds. Moderate return flow will develop across the
western Gulf over the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Feature above for heavy rainfall to affect Cuba
through Sat afternoon.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over Central America,
mainly from western Panama to Honduras. A diffluent patter aloft
is helping to induce this convective activity. Shower and thunderstorms
are also noted over eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica.
A dry and stable air mass dominates the eastern Caribbean, where
African dust is observed on the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) tracking
product from CIMSS. The dry weather is forecast to persist throughout
the weekend. As a result, excessive heat conditions will persist
along locations in the N coast of Puerto Rico where heat indices
over 112 degrees are expected. San Juan, was one degree from tying
the record temperature of 94 degrees on Wed.

Winds are increasing over the eastern Caribbean due to the pressure
gradient between the 1009 mb Colombian Low and high pressure northeast
of the Caribbean Sea. Latest satellite derived wind data provide
observations of fresh to strong trades S of 15N between 69W and
73W, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere between Hispaniola
and northern Colombia/NW Venezuela. Light to gentle E to SE winds
are seen over the NW Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central
and E Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, weak high pressure across the central Tropical
Atlantic will shift NW and strengthen through Thu, producing
increasing winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean
through early Fri. Active weather is expected across N central
portions through Fri. Atlantic high pressure will shift NE and
weaken Fri night through the weekend, with winds and seas across
the basin diminishing modestly. A return to a more typical
easterly trade wind regime is expected Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, see Special Features above for heavy rainfall to affect
the Bahamas through Sat afternoon.

A weak cold front extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located
near 33N47W to 28N57W, where it transitions to a stationary front
to 28N64W. Convection is limited near the front. Farther east, a
cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N15W, then crosses
the Canary Islands and continues SW to 21N27W, where it transitions
to a stationary front to a 1012 mb low near 20N34W. A weakening
cold front extends westward from the low center to 17N40W. These
frontal boundaries and associated low pressure systems farther
north have displaced the Bermuda/Azores High down to 22N62W with
a 1019 mb central pressure. Winds ahead of the easternmost cold
front north of 27N and east of 20W are SW fresh to locally strong
with seas of 6-8 ft. Similar wind speeds are noted between the
Canary Islands. Elsewhere across the entire subtropical N
Atlantic, the winds are moderate or weaker with seas generally in
the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure
will move NW and build across the forecast waters tonight through
late Fri. Active weather is expected across the Bahamas and adjacent
Atlantic to 70W though Fri. The high pressure will then drift NE
over the upcoming weekend, leading to a decreasing trend in winds
and seas across the area.

$$
GR
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