[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080900
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Excessive Rainfall - Cuba and Bahamas:
Moist southerly mid-level flow combined with enhanced rising air
motion due to a strong upper-level jet positioned just northwest
of this area will maintain the potential for heavy rain and strong
thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur through
Sat afternoon across portions of eastern and central Cuba and the
central Bahamas. These rains could cause flooding, especially over
mountainous areas in eastern and central Cuba. Please see the
latest forecast from your national meteorological service for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 2W, from 13N
southward, moving westward at 15 knots to 20 knots. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N
between 28W and 35W.

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 53W, from 12N
southward, moving westward at 15 knots to 20 knots. Isolated
convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 50W and 56W.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 70W, from 13N
southward, moving westward at 10 knots to 15 knots. There is
limited convection in the vicinity of the wave axis.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 82W, from 14N
southward, moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W to 07.5N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N17W to
06N29W. It resumes from 06N32W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 10W
and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N
between 38W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern dominates the Gulf waters supporting
mainly light to gentle winds across the Gulf waters. Small area
of winds to moderate speeds are found over the waters west of the
Yucatan peninsula as well as over the Yucatan channel. Seas are in
the 1-2 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure will generally prevail across the
basin through the end of the week, with mainly gentle to
moderate winds. Moderate return flow will develop across the
western Gulf over the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Feature above for heavy rainfall to affect Cuba
through Sat afternoon.

The pressure gradient between high pressure building north of the
area and a tropical wave in the Caribbean is supporting fresh to
strong winds over the southern Caribbean waters east of 75W.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere east of 75W, with light to
gentle winds west of 75W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range east of
74W, and 2-5 ft west of 75W.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area has
increased winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean.
The area of high pressure will weaken Fri night through the
weekend, with winds and seas across the basin diminishing
modestly. A return to a more typical easterly trade wind regime
is expected early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, see Special Features above for heavy rainfall to affect
the Bahamas through Sat afternoon.

High pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 24N61W, with associated
ridge extending westward across the southern Bahamas. Light to
gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of the high center.
Moderate to fresh winds are found west of 60W. The pressure
gradient between the high center and a tropical wave is supporting
moderate to fresh winds over the tropical waters south of 20N and
west of 50W. Light to gentle winds generally prevail over the
remainder of the discussion area. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail across
much of the discussion area.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across the forecast
waters through late Fri. The area of high pressure will then
weaken over the upcoming weekend, leading to a decrease in winds
and seas across the area waters.

$$
AL
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