[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jul 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 19N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 15N between 27W and 36W.

A western Atlantic tropical waves is near 53W from 18N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 04N to 15N between 45W and 53W.

A strong central Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W from near
Jamaica southward to near the Panama-Colombia border. It is moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are observed from 13N to the southern coast of eastern Cuba and
Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic just north of the
Mauritania-Senegal border, then extends west-southwestward through
12N35W to 11N52W. Scattered moderate convection are noted up to
180 nm north, and 80 nm south of the trough between 37W and 45W,
and from 07N to 10N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 20W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the southwestern
Caribbean waters near Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough reaches eastward from an upper low near
Tampico, Mexico to the central Gulf then turns southeastward to
the Great Bahama Bank. These features are triggering scattered
showers and thunderstorms at the southwestern and southeastern
Gulf, including the Florida Straits and Bay of Campeche. Isolated
thunderstorms are present across the northern Gulf. Otherwise, a
1018 mb high at the northwestern Gulf is supporting light to
gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft for the northern Gulf. Gentle
to moderate NE to ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the
southern Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high will remain the
dominant feature across the basin into the weekend. This will
support gentle to moderate winds, except moderate to locally
strong at the eastern Bay of Campeche which will be enhanced by a
thermal trough emerging off the Yucatan Peninsula each night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trades are causing isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf
of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections above for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin.

A large dome of 1028 mb high near 33N43W is maintaining a trade-
wind pattern across much of the basin. Enhanced by a robust
tropical wave, moderate to fresh with locally strong E to ESE
winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted over the central basin,
including waters between Jamaica and Cuba. Moderate to locally
fresh ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident for the eastern
basin. Gentle monsoonal winds with seas at 1 to 3 ft are noted
near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and
4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere within the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
lower pressure over Colombia will  through the weekend. The
robust tropical wave will continue to track westward, and spread
fresh winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms into
the west-central basin through early Sat, before moving into
central America. Afterward, the aforementioned 1028 mb high should
induce pulsing fresh to strong trades across the central
Caribbean into early next week. Another strong tropical wave is
expected to move across the Tropical Atlantic and reach 55W late
Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pronounced surface trough along with abundant tropical moisture
is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from
northwest Bahamas, eastern Florida and nearby Atlantic waters. An
upper-low near 28N54W is generating isolated thunderstorms from
25N to 27N between 51W and 55W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft are found from
northwest Bahamas northward to east of northern Florida, west of
75W. Otherwise. the large 1028 mb high near 33N43W is dominating
north of 20N between 25W and the Georgia-Florida coast with
gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas. Near the
Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE trades
and seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate north of 19N between the Africa
coast and 25W. For the tropical Atlantic, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh ENE to E trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft are evident
from 11N to 20N between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser
Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly
winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell prevail for
the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned 1028 mb high
over the central Atlantic will gradually shift eastward through
the weekend as the surface trough moves over Florida and the
southeastern U.S. coasts over the next several days. Active
weather will continue with and ahead of this trough. Fresh trades
will pulse nightly north of Hispaniola and over the Windward
Passage. A strong tropical wave will move into the eastern
Atlantic waters Sun and Mon.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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