[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jul 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 33W from
03N to 19N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are
noted from 07N-15N between 28W-35W.

A western Atlantic tropical waves extends its axis along 52W from
03N to 18N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection
is associated with this wave at this time.

A strong tropical wave in the west-central Caribbean extends its
axis along 76W from 05N to 20N. Scattered moderate convection is
observed within 150 nm on either side of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 20N16W
to 10N55W. Scattered showers are noted along the boundary between
25W-53W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough located over the western Atlantic is producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southeastern Gulf,
including southern Florida and the Florida Keys. To the west, a
thermal trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge extends
across the basin, supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1
to 3 ft across the northern and central Gulf. Gentle to moderate
NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted across the southern
Gulf, including the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the aforementioned weak surface ridge will
remain the dominant feature across the basin into the weekend.
This will support gentle to moderate winds, except over the
eastern Bay of Campeche, where winds will be enhanced by a thermal
trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection in the central and western Caribbean Sea is
associated with a tropical wave described above. Please see the
TROPICAL WAVE and MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ sections above for more
details. In addition, moderate convection is moving southwest
from central Cuba into the western basin.

A ridge is maintaining the standard trade-wind pattern over much
of the basin. Enhanced by a robust tropical wave, moderate to
fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft
are noted over the central and eastern basin, and near the
Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
prevail over the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE winds
and seas at 2 to 4 ft are noted over the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over Colombia will resume pulsing fresh to
strong trades across the central Caribbean through the weekend.
A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean will continue
to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms through early
Sat, before moving into central America.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong surface trough combined with abundant tropical moisture
is supporting scattered moderate convection west of 75W. Outside
of this convection, winds are gentle to moderate in this area,
with 3 to 5 ft seas. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the basin.
In the remainder of the western and central Atlantic, winds are
generally moderate mainly from the E with 5 to 8 ft seas. In the
eastern Atlantic, moderate NE winds prevail. Fresh to strong NE
winds are noted along the coast of Africa and between the Canary
Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure
centered over the central Atlantic will gradually shift eastward
through the weekend as a surface trough along 78W moves slowly
west-northwestward into the southeastern U.S. coast over the next
several days. Active weather will continue to occur with and
ahead of this trough. Fresh trades will pulse nightly N of
Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. A strong tropical wave
will move into the eastern Atlantic waters Sun and Mon.

$$
ERA
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