[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jul 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located near 31W from 03N
to 19N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection with
this wave is isolated and weak.

A western Atlantic tropical waves is located near 50W from 03N to
18N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.

A robust tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea is located
near 74W from 05N to 20N. Scattered moderate with isolated
strong convection is observed from 12N to 20N between 65W and
75W. A recent scatterometer pass reveals that fresh to localized
strong winds are accompanying this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 20N16W
to 10N55W. Convection associated with the trough is isolated and
weak.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the western
Caribbean waters near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern
Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A brought surface trough located east of south Florida and the
Florida Keys is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the east-central and southeastern
Gulf, including southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Another
surface trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge
extends across the basin, supporting light to gentle winds and
seas of 1 to 3 ft across the northern and central Gulf. Gentle
to moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted across
the southern Gulf, including the Florida Straits and Yucatan
Channel.

For the forecast, the aforementioned weak high pressure centered
over the N Gulf will remain the dominant feature across the
basin into the weekend. This will support gentle to moderate
winds, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche, where winds will
be enhanced by a thermal trough that will emerge off the Yucatan
Peninsula each night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection in the central and western Caribbean Sea is
associated with a tropical wave. Please see the TROPICAL WAVE
and MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ sections above for more information. In
addition, moderate convection is moving southwest from central
Cuba into the western basin.

A ridge is maintaining the standard trade-wind pattern over much
of the basin. Enhanced by a robust tropical wave, moderate to
fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft
are found over the central and eastern basin, and near The
Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas are seen at the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over Colombia will resume pulsing fresh to
strong trades across the central Caribbean through the weekend.
A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean will continue
to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms through early
Sat, before moving into central America.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A brought surface trough combined with abundant tropical
moisture is supporting scattered moderate convection west of 76W.
Outside of convection, winds are gentle to moderate in this
area, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Otherwise, high pressure dominates
the basin. In the remainder of the western and central Atlantic,
winds are generally moderate mainly from the E with 5 to 8 ft
seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds remain moderate, but from
the NE. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted along the
coast of Africa and between the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure
centered over the central Atlantic will gradually shift eastward
through the weekend as a surface trough along 75W moves slowly
west-northwestward into the southeastern U.S. coast over the
next several days. Active weather will occur with and ahead of
this trough. Fresh trades will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola and
over the Windward Passage. A strong tropical wave will move into
the eastern Atlantic waters Sun and Mon.

$$
KRV
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