[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272213
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jul 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2210 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 35W from 03N to 19N
moving west at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
observed from 05N to 16N between 30W and 48W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 54W from 02N to 18N
moving west at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
observed from 07N to 16N between 50W and 56W.

A robust tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 78W
from 04N to 20N moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 09N to 17N between 72W and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 10N50W. All significant
convection is described in the tropical waves section above.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the southwestern
Caribbean waters near Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level divergence is triggering scattered showers and
thunderstorms at the southwestern and southeastern Gulf, including
the Florida Straits and Bay of Campeche. Isolated thunderstorms
are present across the northern Gulf. Otherwise, a 1018 mb high at
the northwestern Gulf is supporting light to gentle winds and
seas of 1 to 3 ft for the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to
ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the southern Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will remain the dominant
feature across the basin through early next week. This will
support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern Bay of
Campeche, where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough that
will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trades are causing isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf
of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections above for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin.

A 1028 mb subtropical high near 33N43W is maintaining a trade-
wind pattern across much of the basin. Enhanced by a robust
tropical wave, moderate to fresh with locally strong E to ESE
winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted over the central basin,
including waters between Jamaica and Cuba. Moderate to locally
fresh ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident for the eastern
basin. Gentle monsoonal winds with seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted
near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4
to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere within the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over Colombia will induce pulsing fresh to
strong trades across the central Caribbean through early Mon. A
strong tropical wave over the west-central Caribbean will continue
to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sat,
before moving into central America. Another strong tropical wave
is expected to move across the Tropical Atlantic and reach 55W
late Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough just east of Florida along with abundant tropical
moisture is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
west of 75W. Otherwise the gradient between a ridge of high
pressure along 33N and lower pressure along the monsoon trough is
dominating the weather pattern. In the western Atlantic winds are
generally moderate from the ESE with 4-7 ft seas. In the central
Atlantic, easterly winds are gentle to moderate north of 25N with
3-5 ft seas, and moderate to fresh south of 25N with 6-8 ft seas.
In the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE
with 5-7 ft seas. Locally strong NE winds are noted along the
coast of Africa, and near the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the
central Atlantic will gradually shift eastward through the weekend
as a surface trough along 80W moves slowly west-northwestward
into Florida and southeastern U.S. coasts over the next few days.
Active weather will continue with and SE of this trough. Fresh
trades will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola and over the Windward
Passage. A strong tropical wave will move into the eastern
Atlantic waters Sun through Mon, with surface low pressure
expected to develop.

$$
Flynn
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