[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260344
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jul 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0335 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W, south of
19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present from 06N to 15N and between the coast
of western Africa to 28W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W, south of
19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection to
isolated strong is observed from 04N to 10N and between 38W and
45W.

A eastern Caribbean tropical wave, formerly Invest 95L, has its
axis along 67W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection and gusty winds are occurring across the
eastern Caribbean Sea, also affecting the Leeward Islands and the
eastern Greater Antilles.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 11N30W and to
08N48W. See the Tropical Waves section for information on convection.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front located over the southern United States
and an upper level low in the NW Caribbean, along with divergence
aloft, sustain scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Straits. The rest
of the Gulf enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions under a weak
high pressure.

The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over
southern Mexico support moderate to fresh easterly winds off NW
Yucatan, especially south of 24N and east of 95W. Seas in these
waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and 1-3
ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will remain
dominant the feature across the basin into late this week. This
will support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern
Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough
that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula nightly.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the
central Atlantic and the 1008 mb Colombian low pressure continue
to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found in the eastern and
north-central Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are
noted in the eastern Caribbean due to the strong tropical wave
moving across the region. Moderate or weaker winds and 3-5 ft seas
prevail elsewhere.

An upper level low in the NW Caribbean and divergence aloft
continue to generate scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection, mainly north of 18N and west of 76W. The storm
activity is affecting central Cuba, the Cayman Islands and the
Bahamas. No deep convection is noted in the rest of the basin,
except for the eastern Caribbean due to the aforementioned strong
tropical wave.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
lower pressure over Central America and northern South America
will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean the
next couple of days. Winds should diminish slightly to fresh to
strong beginning on Wed. A tropical wave, Invest AL95, over the
southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, with some locally heavy rains over portions of the
adjacent land areas. Development of this system is not anticipated
while it continues to move rapidly westward over the Caribbean
during the next few days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough located between Bermuda and the Bahamas and
divergence aloft continue to support scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection mainly west of 67W. The rest of the
tropical Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive 1028 mb
subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. Moderate
to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across
the basin, especially north of the deep tropics and east of 70W,
including the entrance of the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, light
to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure dominating the area will
gradually shift northward this week as a surface trough,
currently located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda moves
west-northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast over the
next several days. Fresh trades will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola
and over the Windward Passage. Elsewhere across forecast waters,
winds will be moderate or weaker over most of the area with
moderate to fresh speeds for waters NE of the Leeward Islands.

$$
DELGADO
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