[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252233
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jul 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 21W from 19N to
03N moving west at roughly 10 kt. Isolated to scattered showers
are observed from 08N to 20N between 16W and 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 41W from 19N to 03N
moving west at roughly 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 05N to 10N between 37W and 44W.

A eastern Caribbean tropical wave, Invest AL95, extends along 65W
from 20N to 05N, moving west at roughly 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection and gusty winds are occuring across the eastern
Caribbean Sea, including the Lesser Antilees. There is a low
chance of tropical cyclone development along this wave during the
next seven days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W
to 08N47W. The ITCZ continues from 08N47W to 13N60W. All
significant convection is described in the tropical wave section
above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A very weak stationary front drapes across the north-central Gulf
coast from near New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle. No
convection is observed near this feature. A surface trough south
of the front is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
north-central Gulf. Otherwise a surface ridge extends from the
Atlantic Ocean to the central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and
seas of 1 to 3 ft are observed across the northern half of the
Gulf. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted
in the soutehrn half of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will
remain dominant the feature across the basin into late this week.
This will support gentle to moderate winds, except over the
eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal
trough that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula nightly.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is triggering isolated thunderstorms in the
northwestern basin, including the Yucatan Channel. A relatively
tight gradient between the Atlantic Ridge to the north and
Colombian Low is supproting fresh easterly trade winds in the
central and eastern basin, with strong NE winds in the SW
Caribbean. Seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range near the strong winds
in the SW Caribbean and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere in the central and
eastern Caribbean. Conditions are more favorable in the NW
Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds and slight seas outside of
thunderstorms.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over Central America and northern South America
will maintain strong trades across the central Caribbean the next
couple of days. Winds should diminish slightly to fresh to strong
beginning on Wed. A tropical wave, Invest AL95, located over the
eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms while moving quickly westward.
Development of this system is not expected while it continues to
move rapidly westward over the Caribbean during the next few days.
Even though development is unlikely, locally heavy rains and
strong gusty winds are expected with the wave.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough SW of Bermuda is supporting isolated moderate
convection from 23N to 30N between 66W and 75W. Isolated
thunderstorms are also noted farther west near the NW Bahamas and
eastern Florida. Otherwise, the weather pattern in the basin is
dominated by a 1028 mb high centered between Bermuda and the
Azores near 35N47W. In the western Atlantic winds are light to
gentle outside of thunderstorms, with slight seas. In the central
Atlantic, easterly winds are generally moderate with 4 to 6 ft
seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate from
the NE with areas of fresh NE winds along the African coast and
between the Canary Islands. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure dominating the
area will gradually shift northward this week as a surface trough,
currently located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda
moves west-northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast over
the next several days. Fresh trades will pulse nightly N of
Hispaniola and over the Windward Passage. Elsewhere across
forecast waters, winds will be moderate or weaker over most of the
area with moderate to fresh speeds for waters NE of the Leeward
Islands.

$$
Flynn
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net