[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jul 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south
of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 07N to 15N and between 24W-28W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W, south of
18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 06N to 12N and between 40W and 45W.

A eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 69W, south
of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
and gusty winds are occurring across the eastern Caribbean Sea
between 64W-70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 16N17W and continues southwestward to 08N50W. Aside
from the convection described in the section above, scattered
moderate convection prevails along the boundary E of 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low in the NW Caribbean, along with divergence
aloft, sustain scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Straits. The
rest of the Gulf enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions under
a weak high pressure.

The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over
southern Mexico support moderate to fresh easterly winds off NW
Yucatan, especially south of 22N and east of 94W. Seas in these
waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and 1-3
ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will remain
dominant the feature across the basin into late this week. This
will support gentle to moderate winds, except over the eastern
Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough
that will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula nightly.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the eastern Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the
central Atlantic and the 1008 mb Colombian low pressure continues
to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found in the eastern and
north-central Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are
noted in the eastern Caribbean due to the strong tropical wave
moving across the region. Moderate or weaker winds and 3-5 ft seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
lower pressure over Central America and northern South America
will maintain pulsing fresh to strong trades across the central
Caribbean through the weekend. The tropical wave over the eastern
Caribbean will continue moving W producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, with some locally heavy rains over portions of
the adjacent land areas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough located between Bermuda and the Bahamas and
divergence aloft continue to support scattered moderate convection
mainly west of 70W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under
the influence of an expansive 1027 mb subtropical ridge
positioned over the central Atlantic. Moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across the basin,
especially north of the deep tropics and east of 70W, including
the entrance of the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds and 2-4 ft seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure dominating the area
will gradually shift northward through the week as a surface trough,
currently located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda moves
west-northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast over the
next several days. Fresh trades will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola
and over the Windward Passage. Elsewhere across forecast waters,
winds will be moderate or weaker over most of the area with
moderate to fresh speeds for waters NE of the Leeward Islands.

$$
ERA
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